BURSA KLSE TREND - Patience is bitter but it's fruit is sweet (Aristotle).

DJIA - Free charts

2012-02-11T16:41:00.001+08:00

This are the few free charts for this week.

Nothing new....only waiting for things to happen

USD index - Free charts

2012-02-11T16:30:00.002+08:00

More or limited downside? Ready to rise or Forming a base?

CPO - Free charts ----- SIDEWAY range?

2012-02-11T16:23:00.000+08:00

Singapore ST Index - Free charts

2012-02-11T16:16:00.000+08:00

DJIA

2012-02-07T18:23:00.002+08:00

The bulls have charged all the way from 10500 to current level. Now we start to read the unemployment rate has improved. Why didn't ANALyst and FUNda manager beat their drums at 10500 that unemployment will improve?

Simply because they got no damn clue. But market got a clue and moving up and up and away. Most people are so pre-occupied with the bullshit news and analysis but don't have the guts to recommend BUY!

Now are these ANALyst going to recommend BUY after examine the anal! Go fly kite!

Diamond Formation - Reversal or Continuation????

2012-02-03T20:26:00.001+08:00

GOLD - Free chart. What is NEXT????? Let us see soon

2012-02-01T20:24:00.001+08:00

DJIA Free chart

2012-02-01T18:18:00.000+08:00

FunnyDa Manager and Politician

2012-01-30T22:54:00.007+08:00

(TO THOSE WHO BENEFITED FROM MY FREE CHARTS POSTINGS, I SAY CONGRATULATION. NO APOLOGIES TO Funnimental Folks.)

Rarely, I would like to comment on politics and hero worship. The truth is the Trading/Investing discipline is similar if not same as managing country’s growth.

Many times we hear FunnyDa Manager claiming their trophy and beating their superiority esp from big Investment Banks. Well they can do this only if the funds managed are growing in a rising market. The truth is many (except small minority) are able to outperform the market and the peers (majority) in a down market.

If we look at Malaysia growth from the 1980s – 90s, it is touted the “industrialization”. What is the big deal? Did Malaysia “grew” during this period while the neighbors languish in the doldrums? OR did Malaysia and the neighbors grew TOGETHER? So everyone grew together!

Now the politicians will start to coin all different names and terms to apple polish and bestowed one particular politician…Father of Modern Malaysia or some sort like that. Malaysians are well known and aloof with all sort of honorary titles and names. When 1997-98 Asia Financial Crisis hits, Malaysia is not spared. Malaysia went into the drains like the neighbors. What is the deal? If Malaysia manage to weather the storm unlike most of its neighbors (except the little RED DOT island) and Ringgit was not battered, than I will salute and honestly give my respect to this politician. The fact that Malaysia suffered the same fate like most of the neighbors proved this “funda manager” is not outstanding and no different from others despite his chants.

Now you can draw a parallel line between a good superior fund manager and a politician. A lousy fund manager will blame the environment for the losses. Isn’t that a fund manager is suppose to deliver good results irrespective of market conditions? Now if a fund manager is unable to guarantee you that your capital is preserved during a downturn, you might as well dump the manager!

It is better that you take over and chart your own destiny instead of leaving to a captain that drive the cruise liner into the ground recently in Europe!

Free FKLCI intra day chart

2012-01-30T11:45:00.000+08:00

Analysis: More than ever, businesses must think "what if" - Paritosh Bansal (Jan 30, 2012)

2012-01-30T07:49:00.001+08:00

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - A tumultuous 12 months that saw revolutions in the Middle East, a worsening debt crisis in Europe and a tsunami in Japan has set the tone for corporate activity in 2012.

Caution, flexibility, nimbleness and deep knowledge of host countries are more important than ever, executives and their advisers said at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting. Fear of a major geopolitical disruption over the next 12 months has risen to 54 percent, up from 36 percent last quarter, a WEF poll showed at the start of this week's meeting.

"You have to more than at any time in recent memory think in terms of 'what ifs,'" said Vasant Prabhu, chief financial officer of Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc (NYSE:HOT - News). "This is a world in which you have to think in terms of scenarios and alternate outcomes and what you would do."

Companies are closely looking at their counterparties - their vendors, suppliers and the banks that manage their cash to assess what would happen if they run into problems. They are worrying about their currency exposure, with one U.S. company chairman in Davos privately saying he had started converting all of his company's cash in euros into dollars since the euro zone debt crisis suddenly deepened last year.

Other risk-averse moves include companies adjusting their supply chains to build flexibility into their business should a natural disaster cause a repeat of the huge disruption which followed the Japanese earthquake and tsunami last year. And as they enter new markets and face more uncertainty in mature ones, they are putting more effort into understanding local politics and business practices. Some are using former spies to gather intelligence on trade partners.

Behind all this is a growing sense that increased uncertainty is the new reality of doing business. Financial considerations can no longer be the sole focus, advisers and executives said in interviews before and during the WEF in Davos.

"I think fundamentally there is an acknowledgement that this volatility that we are seeing is going to be here for the foreseeable future," PricewaterhouseCoopers Chairman Dennis Nally said. "You can't predict the solution here in Europe. You can't predict what may happen in the Middle East. You can't predict what could happen in terms of the geopolitical issues in Asia, or certainly what's coming out of Washington," Nally said.

Companies feel an imperative to be better prepared. "Our own view right now for 2012 is, 'Yes, there are some scenarios that could be bad but we think of them as low probability," Starwood's Prabhu said. "We think 2012 would be a year where the world muddles through."

FLIGHT TO QUALITY

For bankers one consequence is closer scrutiny of the financial health of their business by corporate treasury departments. Ratings downgrades of some banks have prompted corporate treasurers to analyze their relationships and think about switching banks or spreading the risk by hiring more.

"Increasingly, we are seeing clients take a holistic view of integrating strategic capital raising and risk and cash management in this unique time of uncertainty and volatility," said Jacques Brand, global co-head of Investment Banking Coverage and Advisory at Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE).

"As a result, clients are planning accordingly and we are seeing a flight to quality." Indeed, several major banks have seen their deposits grow, in part because companies have moved their business away from weaker institutions. JPMorgan Chase & Co's (NYSE:JPM - News) Treasury & Securities Services unit saw liability balances grow to $370 billion last year, an increase of more than $100 billion in one year, Mike Cavanagh, the division's chief executive said.

"Corporate clients that we talk to are very mindful that they have counterparty and currency risks, and prioritizing them more so than pre-crisis," Cavanagh said. "To the extent a client has a portfolio of banks providing transaction banking services, they are becoming much more conscious of concentration risk," he added.
Bankers said they are also advising clients to look beyond their immediate trade partners, as what happens to the partners' counterparties could end up affecting their business as well.

"You have to think in terms of two or three degrees of separation. Your vendor, and your vendor's vendor -- when does that create a problem in your supply chain? Your banker and your banker's banker -- when does that create a problem in your financials?" said Samuel Di Piazza, vice chairman in Citigroup's (NYSE:C - News) Institutional Clients Group. "Finance departments have to deal with that this year," Piazza said. "Two years ago they didn't. Maybe in '08 they did, but in '10 we felt better about that. It's back on the agenda."

POLITICS OF BUSINESS

For many Western corporations, the euro zone crisis and the gridlock in Washington are also bringing home the fact that politics has an ever bigger role to play in business and markets. "The euro zone crisis on the surface is a fiscal crisis or a debt crisis but it's going to be resolved as a political issue," said D.J. Peterson, director of Corporate Advisory Services practice at political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group.

Adding to the complexity is the need for companies to find growth in emerging markets, where traditionally the state has played a bigger role in the functioning of markets. Boutique firms such as Eurasia Group, Oxford Analytica and others, which provide geopolitical advice and analysis, are seeing demand for their services grow rapidly in the last few years and are increasingly finding a role alongside traditional advisers such as investment bankers and lawyers in transactions.
Eurasia's Peterson said the group had been growing at about 20 percent a year. It employs scholars, former policy makers, former regulators and industry experts to gather intelligence and analyze geopolitical trends for clients. Some, including Oxford Analytica, also use senior people with experience in diplomacy, intelligence and finance to put together advice for corporate clients.

Swiss insurer Zurich Financial Services (VTX:ZURN.VX - News) said 2011 had been a rough year for natural catastrophe losses but its business of insuring against political risk is booming. "From sovereign debt to tsunamis, the universe of enterprise risk seems broader and more consequential than ever before," said Thomas Huerlimann, head of Zurich Global Corporate.

"You need to hedge your political risk to a greater degree than you had to do, certainly in the last 20 years," said Nader Mousavizadeh, chief executive of Oxford Analytica.

FREE CPO chart

2012-01-29T20:16:00.000+08:00

Investors exit big-name funds as stars fail to shine By Sinead Cruise and Tommy Wilkes (Fri, Jan 20, 2012)

2012-01-20T18:10:00.001+08:00

LONDON (Reuters) - Investors rattled by unpredictable global markets are losing faith in star managers to shield them from painful losses, with some of the industry's best known names topping a list of funds which hemorrhaged cash in 2011, Lipper data shows.

Edouard Carmignac, the investment veteran who founded funds firm Carmignac Gestion, and Sanjeev Shah, the Fidelity Worldwide Investments trailblazer, are among those who struggled to maintain cult followings, after a flight to safety tempted fans to switch into cash and other passive products. Carmignac's 5.7-billion-pound Investisement A Fund suffered the equivalent of 919.3 million pounds of net outflows in the year to December 31, the second-largest spate of annual redemptions recorded by all mutual funds available for sale in the UK, the data from Lipper shows. Investors pulled 491 million pounds from Shah's 2.2-billion-pound Special Situations Acc Fund over 2011, the 17th largest loss in absolute terms of all the 6,400-plus funds tracked by the data.

Andrew Whiteley, director at financial advisor Provisio, said managers' failure to navigate volatile markets last year, as well as growing investor awareness about cheaper products, was combining to hit demand for these long-celebrated names.

"Many 'star' managers were caught without shorts when the tide went out (in 2011) and I think that investors have started to look at cost as a filter for fund selection ahead of performance," he said. Failing to beat even benchmarks last year is hurting reputations, especially at a time when more and more investors are turning to exchange traded funds (ETFs), which trade like stocks and offer less-costly index exposure.

Carmignac's fund dropped 12.87 percent last year, underperforming the MSCI AC World CR USD index, while Shah's fund slumped 14.61 percent versus a 4.17 percent fall in the FTSE All-Share TR index, Lipper data shows. "As an equity fund, Carmignac Investissement A was naturally affected in 2011 by the general rise in risk aversion among European investors. Consequently, the Fund suffered some outflows," Investment Committee Member Didier St Georges said. Shah, who stepped into Anthony Bolton's shoes to run the UK portion of the Special Situations fund, said strong momentum bias in markets had hurt his investment style.

(TZ - What style? FA? Funnimental? Rigid style. Not adaptive style. Blah blah blah FA. When market goes up, Fund Managers act and behave like Stars. When market goes down, blame the tide? Why not exit before the tide recede? It is the Tide that floats the ship and not the Captain!!! Understand!!! If Captain can navigate only during calm sea and don't know how to berth and secure the ship before storm or don't know how to navigate during storm, this captain is not qualified. Better have a mutiny on board and let others take over!!!)

The fund saw some larger, institutional investors shift money out of the fund as a result of asset allocation, a Fidelity spokesperson added.

PULLING POWER

Other star managers to lose pulling power last year included Will Landers, the BlackRock manager whose BGF Latin American Fund A2 USD suffered the biggest investor exodus in absolute terms in 2011. The fund lost the equivalent of 938 million pounds and now runs 2.97 billion pounds, the Lipper data showed. BlackRock blamed the outflows on European volatility but said they expected Latin America to outperform relative to global equity markets when markets stabilized, as was the case during the turmoil of 2008 and 2009.

(TZ - Blame outflow on others? If you are running it profitably, how many people want to exit?)

Aled Smith, manager of M&G's 1.23-billion-pound American A Inc fund, lost the equivalent of 781 million pounds, ranking it in seventh spot, according to the Lipper data. M&G said Smith's 3-5 year investment approach faced performance headwinds in 2011 as the market chased perceived safety and immediate cash returns at the expense of the long term picture of individual companies, no matter how sound.

(TZ - If you can buck the trend and continue to deliver, maybe you end up getting more investors!!)

JP Morgan Asset Management provided its own numbers for Austin Forey's $6.32-billion Emerging Markets Equity Fund, which saw $1.48 billion leave, a larger outflow in absolute terms than that posted by BlackRock's Will Landers. "We did see some European institutional investors completely reduce their emerging markets (EM) exposure in an indiscriminate manner across all funds, not just this particular fund. In many cases they sold out of all their EM holdings," Emily Whiting, client portfolio manager at JP Morgan, said. Much of the money flowed into bond and liquidity funds, though some has started to trickle back this year, she added.

BRAND APPEAL

It wasn't just individual names who suffered hefty outflows. Some fund firms had several products in the top 50, indicating a fall in the pulling power of a brand as well as a star manager. The asset management arm of UBS, the Swiss bank shaken by a rogue trader scandal, suffered extensive outflows in several funds, including money market funds. The firm's 3.09-billion-pound UBS (Lux) Money Market Fund - USD P-acc lost the equivalent of 897 million pounds, the third largest outflow of any fund, according to Lipper data. The UBS (Lux) Money Market Fund CHF P-acc shed the equivalent of 357 million pounds, leaving it with just 877 million in December. The Euro version lost 480 million, to end the year managing 1.69 billion pounds, the data shows.

Meanwhile, UBS watched 288 million pounds leave its 316 million pounds (Lux) Eq Fd - Emerging Markets (USD) P-acc fund, and 225 million pounds leave its (Lux) Eq Fd - Euro Co Multi Strategy fund, which now manages the equivalent of 642 million pounds. UBS confirmed the numbers but declined to comment further.

PLUM at the back of my house.

2012-01-06T13:16:00.004+08:00

One month ago before I left the plum fruits were green. Now they are ripe and ready for harvest.

Trading the market is no different. Wait for the set-up to come in place and when all points to the right time, pull the trigger.

FKLCI Chart - Default versus AO indicators

2012-01-06T10:43:00.001+08:00

CPO - DEFAULT vs AO indicators

2012-01-06T08:56:00.001+08:00

DEFAULT MACD versus AO indicators

2012-01-06T08:11:00.004+08:00

For the ease of some readers, I have placed default indicators on the TOP of the chart to compare against my own proprietary indicators which are my own "creations".

DO YOU THINK I CAN TIME THE MARKET TURNING POINTS CONSISTENTLY?

DO YOU THINK I CAN CAPTURE MOST OF THE MOVES?

I started out believing many things that were published in books and media be if FA or TA. Over the years I sought to challenge these statements and opinions! With dedication, effort, patience and discipline, I manage to slowly unravel the flaws in many statements and mindset.

IF you think you cannot beat the market, you will be beaten definitely. If you believe you cannot time the market, you are operating off timed all the time.

I have taken time to travel to USA to smell the air...after 19 years and I am so glad I can feel the snow. During this one month, I re-look into all the formula and question if I can improve the precision more than what I have achieved.

As an educated, trained researcher and practitioner, I am glad I am able to challenge each and every of my developments to improve.

I will post some photos of my trip back to my alma mater CORNELL University and the graduate school later.

Let me relook into market and what lies in 2012....

Happy NEW year

Investment banks must shrink or die. WILL there be fewer investment banks at the end of the year?

2012-01-05T14:47:00.001+08:00

Last year, brutal market conditions forced almost all wholesale banks to cut costs and jobs. (Margaret Doyle, Jan 05, 2012, Reuters)

Last year, brutal market conditions forced almost all wholesale banks to cut costs and jobs. New regulations will force further shrinkage simply to generate acceptable returns. Unless the market picks up soon, smaller players may conclude that they are better off out of the game altogether.

Banks cut thousands of jobs from their wholesale divisions last year, as revenues collapsed amid the euro-zone crisis. Meanwhile, new regulations will halve average expected return on equity (ROE) across global investment banks this year to 8.3 per cent, said analysts at JPMorgan, well below the 13 per cent needed to cover their cost of equity. To reach that required return, banks have to shrink further. Even factoring in further headcount reductions of up to 20 per cent and a 5 per cent cut in non-compensation costs, returns would still be too low. To reach a 13 per cent ROE, banks will have to slash pay too - by a hefty 23 per cent per head on average, JPMorgan reckons.

Those cuts will remove not just fat, but will undermine revenue as well. The most vulnerable banks are those that are already sub-scale. JPMorgan analysts estimate that last year's revenue at Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Societe Generale (SocGen) and UBS will be barely half that of industry leaders Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. Nomura, too, faces a tough call - its investment bank is losing money in Europe, while the threat of a ratings downgrade could undermine its counter- party status. No one is yet contemplating quitting - publicly, at least.

Nomura reckons that its capital strength and liquidity position will allow it to gain from euro-zone turmoil. UBS insists that its smaller investment bank is essential to its private bank. However, there are signs of retreat. The British government, RBS' major shareholder, made clear last month that it wants to shrink the investment bank faster. And SocGen has installed its chief financial officer at the head of its investment bank, suggesting a tighter focus on costs. However, closing investment banks is easier said than done. One banker likens them to nuclear plants - the toxic waste has to be managed by expensive staff.

So, while few banks will kill off their wholesale arms, this may be the year they decide to starve them to death.

Pros see stocks up in 2012, but big risks, too - Bernard Condon, AP Business Writer, Dec 25, 2011

2011-12-27T22:17:00.002+08:00

Wall Street is hot on stocks in 2012, but its forecasts can miss. Pros and cons for buying

NEW YORK (AP) -- The good news is that Wall Street experts think stock prices will rise more than 10 percent next year. The bad news is that they expected big gains in 2011 and got nearly zero instead.

It's forecasting time on Wall Street, and once again the pros are trying to predict the unpredictable. History suggests their target price for stocks by the end of 2012 will prove too high or too low. They might even get the direction wrong — predicting a gain when there's a loss.

As Yogi Berra said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
In typical times, guessing where stocks will end up in a year is difficult. There are many assumptions about economic growth, inflation and consumer spending that go into the calculation.

Now, forecasting has become nearly impossible. Big unknowns hang over the market as rarely before. Will the euro break up? Will China slow too sharply? Will squabbling in Washington scuttle the economic recovery?

"Normally, you wonder, How will sales do? How are managements doing?" says Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's, which puts out its own forecasts. "Now there are so many high-level issues that affect the market."

Silverblatt's firm says the S&P 500 index should rise to 1,400 by the end of 2012, up more than 10 percent from Friday's close of 1,265. That figure is an average of expectations from investment strategists, economists and other big thinkers. More bullish yet are stock analysts focused on individual companies. Add up their price targets for each stock in the index, and they see it rising to 1,457, up 15 percent.
There's plenty of reason to think stocks will rise fast in the coming year. U.S. companies are generating record profits. Americans are spending more than expected and factories are producing more. The job market finally appears to be healing, too.
The odds of the U.S. slipping into another recession have fallen since the summer, when the economy had slowed.

Stocks seem attractively priced, too. The S&P 500 is trading at 12 times its expected earnings per share for 2012. It typically trades at 15 times, meaning stocks appear cheaper now.

Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, says the S&P 500 could hit 1,500 by the end of 2012, a gain of more than 18 percent. Still, there is worry amid the bullishness.

Michael Hartnett, chief global equity strategist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, expects the S&P to close next year at 1,350, up 6.7 percent from Friday's close. He thinks the U.S. will avoid recession and U.S. companies will generate decent profits.

What could wreck that prediction is a worse situation in Europe than he is expecting. If European leaders move too slowly to solve their government debt crisis, the region could fall into a deep recession and throw the U.S. into one, too. If Europe tanks, profits will drop sharply and push the S&P down to 1,000, he says. That would be a sharp drop of 21 percent from Friday's close.

The frightening part is that Hartnett gives this "bear" case four-in-10 odds.
Similarly, Barry Knapp, strategist at Barclays Capital, predicts the S&P will rise to 1,330 next year. But he expects Europe's struggles with its debt and Washington gridlock could lead investors to sell before they buy. He says the S&P could fall to 1,150 by the middle of the year before rising to his target.

It could drop sooner. In the first three months next year, Italy needs to sell national bonds to raise money to pay holders of $172 billion worth of old ones coming due. The risk is that investors will demand high interest rates to buy the new bonds, and that will spread fears of a possible default. After Italy was forced to pay unexpectedly high rates in a bond auction earlier this month, stocks fell hard around the world.

"The crisis could become systemic," says Athanasios Vamvakidis, head European currency strategist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. "That would threaten not only Europe, but the whole global recovery."

One solution is to invest in companies selling goods that people need in both good times and bad, such as drugs and food. If the economy falls into recession, profits of these companies are less likely to collapse.

In 2011, these so-called defensive companies bucked the flat market. Stocks of utility companies have risen almost 15 percent through Friday. Healthcare and consumer staples were each up 10. Standouts include insurer UnitedHealth Group Inc., which has risen 42 percent, and Kraft Foods, up almost 20 percent.

Then again, you might do better investing in the opposite kind of companies, like makers of toys and other consumer discretionary goods. Their profits tend to zoom up and down with the economy.

A report from S&P Capital IQ notes that stocks of cyclical companies such as these tend to gain the most after market drops like the one in October, when stocks fell nearly 20 percent.

In the five times that the S&P 500 has fallen between 15 percent and 25 percent since 1978, consumer discretionary stocks have risen an average 30 percent in the next six months, according to S&P. Those stocks are up 16 percent since their Oct. 3 lows.

One reason it's difficult to guess future stock prices is that figuring out where the economy is heading isn't so easy either.

In December 2007, economists expected the economy to grow an average 2.4 percent in 2008, according to a survey of three dozen of them by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It shrank 0.3 percent instead. For 2009, they forecast the economy would shrink 0.8 percent. It shrank 3.5 percent.

Economists were more accurate the next two years, though not by much. Now they say the economy will grow 2.2 percent next year.

A few mutual fund managers say people aren't skeptical enough about forecasts. In a recent letter to their investors, the folks who run Castle Focus, a $43 million fund, say hopes of big profits may be dashed given all the economic uncertainty. The fund had 28 percent of its assets in cash in September, its latest report.

Most funds are doing the opposite and investing cash. The average stock mutual fund had just 3.5 percent of its assets in cash in October, according to a report from the Investment Company Institute. That is the nearly the lowest level since the firm started keeping records 25 years ago.

Maybe fund managers have been listening too much to bullish stock analysts. For the record, the same analysts surveyed by S&P who expect a 16 percent stock jump next year were optimistic about 2011, too. A year ago, they called for the S&P to rise 9 percent.

It still may, but the odds are long and time is running out. As of Friday, the index was up 0.6 percent for the year.

Fed proposes rules to tame Wall St risk-taking

2011-12-21T11:51:00.001+08:00

Business Times - 21 Dec 2011

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve proposed new rules on Tuesday to restrain risk-taking by the largest US banks as it tries to make the financial system more resilient against future crises.

The proposal, required by the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial oversight law, includes new capital and liquidity rules for the largest banks that would roll out in two phases and not likely go further than international standards.

The plan issued on Tuesday closely follows statements the Fed has made in recent weeks to calm Wall Street concerns that US standards may be more aggressive than those of other nations, putting US banks at a disadvantage.

Some analysts were hoping the Fed would provide more details in its proposal and that in many areas it simply echoed the law, leaving the specifics for later.

'This is pretty much a book report on the Dodd-Frank bill,'said Paul Miller, a bank stock analyst at FBR Capital Markets.

The Fed said both the capital and liquidity requirements would be implemented in two phases.

The first phase would rely on policies already issued by the Fed, such as the capital stress test plan it released in November.

That stress test plan will require banks with more than US$50 billion in assets to show they can meet a Tier 1 common risk-based capital ratio of 5 per cent during a time of economic stress.

The second phase for both capital and liquidity would be based on the Fed's implementation of the Basel III international bank regulatory agreement.

That standard brings the Tier 1 common risk-based capital ratio requirement to 7 per cent, plus a surcharge of up to 2.5 per cent for the most complex firms.

'They're basically following the guidelines from Basel on the capital buffer. There were really no big surprises,' said Gerard Cassidy, bank analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

One area still unclear is how much the surcharge will be for banks that are above US$50 billion in assets, but are not in the group of eight institutions considered globally systemic. A Fed official told reporters they have yet to make a decision on the issue, but if these banks eventually face a surcharge, it will likely be a small amount.

The KBW Bank Index of stocks closed up 4.1 per cent, a slight gain over where it was prior to the Fed's release.

The rules, once finalised, will apply to all banks with more than US$50 billion in assets, including Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Bank of America.

Most large US banks already meet the Basel III requirements scheduled to fully go into effect in 2019.

For its liquidity requirements, the Fed is waiting on the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to flesh out its own liquidity recommendations before setting out US requirements.

The central bank said it initially would hold US banks to a qualitative liquidity standard.

Under the Fed plan, banks would have to assess, at least once a month, what their liquidity needs would be for 30 days, for 90 days, and for a year, during a time when markets are stressed. They would be required to have enough liquid assets to cover 30 days of operations under these circumstances.

The proposals released on Tuesday are aimed at ensuring that financial firms have enough capital and liquid assets on hand to weather a future financial crisis. During the 2007-2009 crisis, taxpayers put up US$700 billion to bail out the financial system, partially through capital injections into banks.

Three months of lobbying
The rules will be out for public comment until March 31, 2012, giving Wall Street time to argue that being forced to keep so much cash on hand it will hurt lending and the economic recovery.

Executives, including JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon, have complained that regulators are littering the financial landscape with rules, without properly analysing their economic impact.

A Fed official on Tuesday said the agency does not have an estimate on how much the capital and liquidity standards will impact US economic growth.

But he said the net benefit to the financial system outweighs the cost to Wall Street and any short-term decrease in credit availability.

The rules proposed will not only apply to the largest US banks. They will also cover any financial firm the government identifies as being important to the functioning of financial markets and the economy.

The government has yet to decide which non-banks, such as insurance companies and hedge funds, meet this standard.

When such companies are designated, the Fed said it may'tailor' the rules, which were drafted mostly with banks in mind, to better fit that particular company or industry.

The law also requires the Fed to write tougher standards for foreign banks with operations in the United States. Fed officials said on Tuesday they would release those proposals soon, and that they would apply to about 100 firms.

UNTANGLING THE BANKS The Fed rules also try to limit the dangers of big financial firms being heavily intertwined. It would limit the credit exposure of big banks to a single counterparty as a percentage of the firm's regulatory capital.

The credit exposure between the largest of the big banks would be subject to an even tighter limit. A bank with more than $500 billion in consolidated assets could not have a credit exposure of more than 10 percent to another bank of that size.

'I would be surprised if it caused anybody to change their financing arrangements,' said Dwight Smith, a partner at Morrison & Foerster LLP in Washington. 'This requirement is not going to force anybody to get smaller.' Further, the Fed proposal requires banks to bolster their capital if it appears they are heading into trouble, such as being overexposed to risky assets.

The rule outlines four phases of this 'remediation' process that a bank or other large financial organization would go through if it hits certain triggers signalling weakness.

If a bank does not bounce back after following through on requirements such as a capital boost, the regulators could then restrict dividends, compensation, or even recommend the institution be seized and liquidated.

The Fed did not provide details about how much of the remediation process would be made public. -- REUTERS

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Speculators cut bets on commodities but Goldman still bullish

2011-12-21T01:45:00.000+08:00

Business Times - 20 Dec 2011

(NEW YORK) Speculators reduced bets on commodities to a 31-month low on mounting concern that global economic growth is slowing as Goldman Sachs Group and Barclays Capital reiterated predictions that prices will gain.

Money managers cut combined net-long positions across 18 US futures and options by 9.6 per cent to 532,521 contracts in the week ended Dec 13, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That's the lowest since April 28, 2009. Wagers on gold dropped to an eight-week low and coffee holdings tumbled 60 per cent, the most since August.

Funds are less bullish after Moody's Investors Service said it is reviewing Europe's ratings and the International Monetary Fund said the region's fiscal crisis is 'escalating.' Europe accounts for 19 per cent of global copper demand and consumes about one in six barrels of the world's oil.

Manufacturing in China, the biggest buyer of everything from nickel to soybeans, may contract for a second month, a private survey showed.

'For most people, the fetal position is quickly becoming their portfolio position,' said John Stephenson, who helps to manage US$2.6 billion of assets at First Asset Investment Management in Toronto. 'It could get a lot uglier.'

The Standard & Poor's GSCI Index of 24 commodities dropped 4.5 per cent last week, the most since mid-September, led by industrial and precious metals. The MSCI All-Country World Index fell 3.4 per cent as more than US$1.7 trillion was wiped off the value of global equities.

The Dollar Index, a measure against six trading partners, climbed 2.1 per cent. The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped 21 basis points, or 0.2 percentage point, to 1.85 per cent according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices.

Goldman Sachs said in a report Dec 1 that the world is likely to avoid a recession and maintained its 'overweight' allocation to commodities, predicting a 15 per cent return in the next 12 months. That is still the bank's view, Sophie Bullock, a London-based spokeswoman for Goldman, said in response to questions on Dec 15.

'We are cautiously positive on commodities, and that view hasn't changed,' said Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London. A close balance between supply and demand across raw materials 'could drive a strong price rebound in early 2012,' the bank said in a report this month.

The S&P GSCI gauge tumbled 19 per cent since reaching a 32-month high in April. Cooling expansion in emerging markets will spur further declines for raw materials, according to Michael Aronstein, the investor who said in early May that commodities were entering a multiyear bear market.

'People are just coming around to the understanding that things in the developing world are in a fairly serious retreat,' said Mr Aronstein, the president of Marketfield Asset Management in New York, who correctly predicted the 2008 slump that drove the S&P GSCI down 66 per cent in seven months.

Chinese factory output may decline for a second month in December as Europe's debt crisis weighs on exports and home sales slide, preliminary results from a Markit Economics survey indicated on Dec 15. In the euro area, manufacturing may contract for a fifth consecutive month, a separate report from London-based Markit Economics showed.

Options traders are paying the most since August 2010 to protect against losses in Chinese stocks. The Asian nation's gross domestic product will grow by 8.5 per cent in 2012, down from 9.2 per cent this year and 10.4 per cent in 2010, according to the median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The euro dropped below US$1.30 last week for the first time since January on signs of rising funding stress in the region. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there is no easy solution to the crisis after rejecting an increase in the upper limit of funding for a permanent bailout programme.

'The macro outlook remains poor heading into 2012 with risks skewed to the downside,' Morgan Stanley commodity analysts led by New York- based Hussein Allidina said in a report Dec 16. 'We are in the early stages of a multi-year deleveraging and de-globalisation cycle.' A crunch in financing for commodity trading, spurred by 'aggressive, sustained European bank deleveraging,' may send raw-material prices plunging next year, said Deutsche Bank AG in a report on Dec 5.

Investors put US$156 million into commodity funds in the week ended Dec 14, according to data from EPFR Global, which tracks investment flows. Gold and precious metal net inflows were US$738 million, while non-precious metal commodities had a net outflow of US$582 million, said Cameron Brandt, the director of research at the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research company.

Funds trimmed their net-long position in gold by 11 per cent to 135,117 contracts, the lowest since Oct 18, the CFTC data show. Holdings have dropped in three of the past four weeks\. \-- Bloomberg

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

IMF chief warns no country immune from crisis

2011-12-16T12:07:00.001+08:00

Business Times - 16 Dec 2011

WASHINGTON - No country is immune from an 'escalating' euro zone crisis and each one must act to head off the risk of a global depression, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, speaking at the US State Department, said the outlook for the world economy is 'quite gloomy' and warned that failure to act collectively could lead to protectionism and isolation reminiscent of the 1930s depression.

'There is no economy in the world, whether low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries or super-advanced economies that will be immune to the crisis that we see not only unfolding but escalating,' Ms Lagarde cautioned.

'It is not a crisis that will be resolved by one group of countries taking action. It is going to be hopefully resolved by all countries, all regions, all categories of countries actually taking action.'

The IMF has warned that it is likely to cut its 2012 growth projections, with the economy struggling with a worsening two-year euro zone debt crisis and sluggish US growth. There are also signs from falling Chinese factory output that manufacturers are struggling with waning global demand and tighter credit conditions.

European leaders last week agreed to lend up to 200 billion euros (US$259.95 billion) to the IMF to help struggling euro zone states and are hoping non-European countries will also step in with loans provided through the global lender to help.

The IMF is currently in talks with member countries on providing additional resources to the Fund.

Ms Lagarde said global economic leaders now needed to take a holistic approach towards addressing systemic weaknesses, such as those underscored by the current euro zone debt crisis.

'It is going to require efforts, it is going to require adjustment, and clearly it is going to have to start from the core of the crisis at the moment, which is obviously the European countries and in particular the countries of the euro zone,' Ms Lagarde said.

She cautioned, however, that democratic government processes often made quick fixes difficult, saying the collision of market expectations with political reality must be resolved.

'It is really that Gordian Knot that needs to be cracked, that needs to be addressed as collectively as possible, starting with those at the centre but with the support of the international community probably channelled through the IMF,' she said.

Ms Lagarde noted some relative bright spots in the economies of Asia and Latin America, which she said had taken steps, with IMF help, during crises in the 1980s and 1990s to address weaknesses in their banking systems and financial regulatory frameworks.

'All those challenges that they faced in the days of the Asian crisis, of the Latin American crisis have now served them well,' Ms Lagarde said. -- REUTERS

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Housing starts down, another sign of a weak market - Chris Zappone (Dec 13, 2011)

2011-12-14T13:00:00.002+08:00

Dwelling starts fell in the third quarter, sinking 6.8 per cent and providing yet another sign of weakness in the Australian housing market.

Separately, housing finance fell in October even as personal finance commitments increased.

Dwelling commencements fell to 35,672 units in the September quarter, seasonally adjusted, from an upwardly revised 38,290 units in the previous three months, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Analysts polled by Bloomberg tipped a 1 per cent drop in the quarter.
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It was the fourth decline in five quarters, and the biggest drop in dwelling starts for a year.

In the year to September 2011, total dwelling commencements dropped 11.5 per cent, seasonally adjusted, the ABS said.

St George Bank Economist Besa Deda said the latest fall in dwelling starts would contribute to slowing conditions in the housing sector.

"It's another big fall," she said. "Dwelling starts are nowhere near keeping pace with the rate of population growth so that's exacerbating the housing shortage which we see as growing to about 140,000 (homes) next year."

"We've seen a pick-up a housing finance but haven't really seen that translate into dwelling approvals or housing starts," she said.

Home loans rose 0.7 per cent in October in data released by the ABS yesterday - the sixth straight increase in the measure.

"We should see an improvement in approvals and starts but it may well take some time given the global backdrop, the nervousness associated with that and funding pressures that are growing in Europe and spreading elsewhere," Ms Deda said.

Personal finance

A separate ABS report showed total personal finance commitments rose 5.2 per cent in October to $7,317 billion.

The seasonally-adjusted commitments were up from $6.956 billion in September.

Total commercial finance in October rose 16.5 per cent to $36.310 billion, seasonally adjusted, from $31.158 billion in September.

Lease finance was down 2.4 per cent in October to $417 million, compared with $427 million the month before.

Housing finance for owner occupation fell 1.2 per cent to $14.377 billion in October, from $14.546 billion in September.

The Age Newspaper

White Christmas in New York

2011-12-05T22:51:00.002+08:00

I am away in for a month in New York. This is my first trip to USA after 19 years. Time flies!

I will remember to send all your regards to OhBama.

Going back to alma mater. Catching with my mba classmates and professors up in cornell.

See you guys around when I am free.

BTW I just flew in last nite from KL and tomorrow I am flying from Melbourne to LA first.

Complimentary Chart

2011-11-25T16:56:00.000+08:00

Soybean Oil chart

VOLUME = IRRATIONALITY

2011-11-25T12:53:00.004+08:00

When you see volume bars, when you hear people tells you volume, when you read about volume commentary, remind yourself that VOLUME = IRRATIONALITY.

When the volume start to increase and explode, it is IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE. You can decide to join the MAD and DRUNK crowd or you can wait for rationality to return.

Human has extremely short memory and all time contradict or defy logic. To compound and aggravate the madness, you have blogs, newsletter paid or free site promoting "volume goes with trend" mantra.

Quite sometime ago I have written how irrational people especially half past six novice and amateur Technical analyst will continue to hymn and chant this mantra. The more famous and well-known self proclaimed guru is not exempted from being disqualified from the crowd. In fact they yearn and want to be part of the crowd. Sense of association and belonging.

According to books When price rises with higher volume, it is sustainable trend. Now how does higher price relates to affordability. ZERO! Your purchasing power drops!!!! Why does more people join the fray as the affordability drops? I don't know but the only one word that explains is IRRATIONAL. Now you understand why I mock the supporters of Trend is supported by Volume. They are misguided people who parrots each other.

On the same token when price starts to drop, the volume increases. Majority of the people seems to enjoy selling lower. Why wait for price to drop and start selling? Why not start selling before price drop lower? Utterly, IRRATIONAL.

Have you trying playing turkey crow? Next time if you have a chance try it on turkeys. Go near them and crow like a turkey. The next thing you know is the whole group of turkey will crow like you!!! This is what I use to do as a kid each time I go back to my hometown during school holidays. The turkeys will crow when they hear the sound irrespective it is human or turkey originated.

How does that related to the "gurus"? They are all like turkeys!!!!

CROW LIKE TURKEYS AND DO LIKE MONKEYS.

Free Chart - SP I200 (australia)

2011-11-24T16:10:00.002+08:00

This is another market which I trade. It is the SPI200 (ASX200 equivalent).

Can you follow the momentum indicators. Can you catch all the major turning points?

Do I need to follow other people? The self crowned guru and paid subscription?

IF you can master ONE or TWO sets of indicators, perfect them. Soon you will automatically upgraded to be a JEDI. No need be self crowned guru.

Complimentary FKLCI 30m chart

2011-11-24T12:03:00.001+08:00

Remember: Huge Money is Only Made When a Little Money is Risked.

2011-11-24T10:55:00.002+08:00

The last article I discussed about how to correctly use VOLUME when trading. If you want to continue a path like a blind stubborn mule, be my guest. What is there to confirm a trend? All you need to know is UP trend anatomy is successive higher HIGHS. Down trend is confirmed with lower LOWS. What has volume got to do with confirmation? NIL. ZERO!

What does volume measures? The number of IRRATIONAL people in the market. The greater the volume the bigger the IRRATIONAL participants. VOLUME does not and will not in anyway confirm the trend or sustainability!

Once you have identified a trade, the next step is to calculate the Reward: Risk ratio using your stop loss and a realistic target price. Your Reward: Risk ratio should be minimum 2:1 with trading strategies’ probability offer reliable success. If the target profit price is at least two times the risk then the trade makes sense. If not, do not take positions.

You may well be right, and the share may well go up, but trading like without this ratio is too risky and will most likely lead to failure.

The position should be determined by your account size, perceived risk and the proportion you are willing to risk. Successful trading is about managing risk!

If Risk-Reward is not mathematically generated from a risk-based formula, do not trade or take positions! One of the biggest causes of failure is the inability to manage risk and control losses.

1. Evaluation of Risk : Reward

2. Know Trade Size, TRAILING Stop

3. Track After entry – Recalculate risk if necessary

Your first objective is your ability to feel market direction, identify high probability entry and ride on it. Your second objective is to protect your funds and control your losses so that the profits from your wins will outweigh the losing trades with trailing stops.

If you are riding or swimming with the trend direction, there is no STOP LOSS to consider except TRAILING STOPS to exit with profits!!! STOP loss is a very subjective issue. It is NEVER objective except precise preset EXIT level.

The logic to Trailing STOP is if you are able to ride the trend with a high probability entry, why do you need a STOP LOSS? It is contradictory. With STOP-LOSS, you pre-set EXIT loss if you are taking position in an uncertain market trend. Does it make sense and logical to take positions during this period of uncertainty? It is only logical to do nothing and be a spectator.

What you need is Trailing “STOP” for ENTRY – EXIT and NOT STOP loss!

Think how you can do a GOOD profitable trade. Profit will take care by itself. IF you are able to do a good probability trade, profit will come automatically.

When you go hunting, you do not count how many preys you will bring home. You should be concerned if you can aim straight and shoot accurately. IF you can aim straight and shoot accurately, your prize will come automatically.

“Nanos gigantum humeris insidentes”

2011-11-23T20:16:00.002+08:00

“Nanos gigantum humeris insidentes” in Latin means “One who develops future intellectual pursuits by understanding the research and works created by notable thinkers of the past”.

Sir Isaac Newton wrote to his fellow scientist Robert Hooke, acknowledging the debt he owed to others, ‘if I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants’ Meaning, the fastest and most efficient way to success is to use the tools that others have discovered before us, and use them to our benefit.

For trading signals and strategies to actually work RELIABLY, we need lots of traders to be agreeing with the signal. Therefore participation is key! Forex is the most participated liquid market in the world (high volume). The signals are the clearest of any marketplace. If you have ever traded an ill-liquid stock in the past using technical analysis – you will know exactly what i mean. I use volume not to confirm the trend or signals. I use volume to ensure the market is liquid and “smooth” without erratic gaps that distorts.

Illiquid markets only need one participant to ruin an otherwise perfect technical setup. Due to huge magnitude of the Forex market, this noise from one or two individuals is smoothed out. This translates into reliable signals. The power comes when your trading strategies are reliant on trading these clear signals.

Remember the rule: “panic buying leads to panic selling”.

1. Clearly defined set of goals and a plan.

2. If you have developed e a successful trading methodology, stick to it.

3. Each trade you place (the entry price and trailing stops to take profit or protect capital) on each trade can all be set ahead of time.

4. In business if you want to succeed – you need to ‘model’ a system that is working and replicate it – then you can expect similar results.

5. Trading is a very lucrative business. If applied with patience and discipline!

Happy surfing..... Happy hunting.....

AirAsia Q3 net profit down on fuel By THOMAS HUONG November 23, 2011 Star Publications

2011-11-23T13:36:00.005+08:00

It also cites forex losses for the 54% drop in third-quarter earnings

AirAsia Bhd posted a 53.5% year-on-year drop in net profit to RM152.3mil for its third quarter mainly due to higher fuel expenses and foreign exchange (forex) losses.

The budget carrier spent 45% more on fuel, at RM421.2mil, for the three months ended Sept 30, compared with a year earlier. It also incurred forex losses of RM169.4mil against forex gains of RM270.8mil in the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile, the group's revenue jumped 9.9% to RM1.08bil for the quarter, it said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia.

The higher revenue was supported by an 8% growth in passenger volume while the average fare was 4% higher at RM180 compared with RM173 in the same period last year, AirAsia said.

However, ancillary income per passenger year-on-year fell by 14% to RM39 from RM45 as ancillary income from AirAsia Go was no longer included. The seat load factor was also one percentage point lower at 77% compared with 78% in the same period last year.

For the nine months ended Sept 30, AirAsia's net profit fell 42.9% year-on-year to RM428.49mil, despite an increase in revenue to RM3.2bil from RM2.78bil a year earlier.

(TZ - 1st - Most if not ALL Malaysian companies irrespective of its status big or small ARE HOPELESS when comes to hedging risks. The finance department or risk management department are filled and operate by inexperienced and unqualified personnel who are utterly rubbish and unfit mentally to understand strategic hedging.

2nd - This is a classic case of passing the costs to customers with all sort of charges to make up for the losses. IF Air Asia any better in managing fuel and forex volatility? I think Air Asia and MAS are on the same footing and "standard". Utterly hopeless.

The people managing forex and fuel are chosen to MANAGE and allowing goals to be scored by own fault.

3rd - I assume Air Asia is looking at absolute profit rather than return in percentage for every ringgit revenue. Absolute profit does not measure efficiency per RINGGIT of funds deployed. Return percentage per RINGGIT is the appropriate measure to judge efficiency and profitability.

Malaysian companies are PATHETIC. )

FKLCI - Where is it going????

2011-11-21T20:21:00.003+08:00

Now to the amateur and novice technician as some would like to be respectfully recognized, see if you can understand my clean and simple chart.

The seasoned technician might be able to spot the TOP and BOTTOM using my proprietary indicators. IF you know how to interpret and read the "meters". All I can do is to show you the charts when I feel like it. Hehehe! Otherwise I will post some rubbish and critiques, issue and problems with Wolves wearing sheep skin!!!!

Me not a chartist and definitely not a technician. I am just another analyst who believe in the power of charts truth. Only if you have discovered the path, right or light path to safe navigation in the marketplace.

With the tools and equipments I have developed, I no longer tread in the dark. All my path are well lit up like by TWO 10kW LED bulbs!!!!

DJIA and OIL tango

2011-11-20T09:21:00.002+08:00

DJIA and Crude Oil continue to display close DIRECTIONAL movements. Directional does not equate to MAGNITUDE. I do not know the reason and neither will I take the initiative to rationalize the reason for such relationship. Will this positive relationship change to random or negative? I do not know if they will transform to random or negative relationship and when this might happen.

If I feel that understanding the rational does not translate into significant profits, I do not pursue. If I try to understand the relationship, it is purely for ACADEMIC knowledge.

How many of you have changed car tires? Very few. How many of you understand how the car engine works? Very-Very-Very few. Despite your incredibly low experience and knowledge about changing tires and engines, you still are able to drive the car around without any major problem. Do you know that a most normal basic 4-cylinder engine firing sequence is 1-3-4-2? It varies across different manufacturers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firing_order

The analogy of charts is no different from driving car. You do not need to know the reasons for the movements. All you need to do is to “drive” with the charts. There is no monetary benefit for understanding why the price dropped 30c or climbed 50c. All you need to do is to anticipate when pending change in direction. Act as the price changes and adjust your positions accordingly.

What is the most critical question you must ask? Is this anticipated reaction “temporary” or “major”. Has the trend changed? How will you confirm all this questions? Definitely not using financial analysis.

I have been able to live comfortably with charts for nearly 16 years compared to 20+ years in the market speak of my faith in charts. ONLY IF YOU KNOW WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING FOR IN CHARTS AND WHAT TO USE TO KEEP YOU SAFE IN MARKET. Forget all the fancy stuffs that you read or fake gurus tell you. You will be on your way to freedom.

Gross Says Europe Is Top Risk to the U.S. Economy - Bloomberg – 19 Nov 2011

2011-11-19T07:20:00.001+08:00

Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest mutual fund, said Europe poses the biggest risk to the U.S. economy.

BlackRock Inc. (BLK)'s Laurence Fink said Germany is playing a "dangerous" game letting markets push debt-laden European nations to fiscal discipline.

The agreement among the two biggest fixed-income managers, who spoke yesterday during an alumni event hosted by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Bloomberg Television, highlights the increasing investor unease over Europe's failure to end its sovereign-debt crisis. As holders of Greek debt begin talks in Athens on structuring a 50 percent write-off that was the cornerstone of a deal pieced together last month, German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday rejected French calls to use the European Central Bank as a lender of last resort, and European borrowing costs outside of Germany hit euro-era records.

"It is a very dangerous stake Germany's playing," Fink, who runs the world's biggest asset manager, said at the event at the Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills, California. "And many people would not play these stakes because the outcomes can be black or white."

Gross and Fink, whose firms collectively manage $4.7 trillion in assets, have differed in the past in their views of markets and the economy. Fink said in January that he never believed in an economic scenario outlined by Pimco under the term "new normal" that described an extended period of below- average growth for the U.S. following the 2008 financial crisis.

Anderson Alumni

The two managers, both alumni of the Anderson School, also diverged in their view of Treasuries, which Gross eliminated from his main fund at the start of this year, only to reverse course after he missed the biggest quarterly rally in Treasuries since 2008. Fink said in March that he's a "big buyer" of the U.S. dollar.

Gross's $244 billion Pimco Total Return Fund has returned 2.5 percent this year, trailing 75 percent of peers. The fund has risen an average of 7.7 percent over the past five years to beat 97 percent of rivals, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Unlike Gross, Fink doesn't manage a bond fund.

Gross has criticized the Federal Reserve for keeping interest rates artificially low by purchasing Treasuries. While Fink said that he had welcomed the first two rounds of the so- called quantitative easing, both agreed last night that the Federal Reserve by now has run out of monetary tools to stimulate the economy.

Fed's ‘Mistake'

"I think Operation Twist was a mistake," Fink said, referring to a program to lengthen the maturity of the Fed's bond portfolio. "And any more form of quantitative easing I would find troublesome."

Fink and Gross agreed that the only way to stimulate the U.S. economy is by fixing structural problems such as the lack of manufacturing jobs in the country.

"I agree with almost everything that Bill says," Fink said. "My conclusion is just somewhat more optimistic than Bill's, but I see the same pitfalls."

Pimco held the distinction of being the world's biggest manager of bond funds until December 2009, when BlackRock's acquisition of Barclays Global Investors and its exchange-traded fund strategies helped it vault past its biggest rival.

Different Paths

Pimco, co-founded by Gross in 1971, and BlackRock, started in 1988 by a team including Fink, have chosen different paths to growth. Unlike BlackRock, which has expanded to $3.35 trillion in assets through acquisitions, Pimco is building its two-year- old equity unit by rolling out strategies one at a time and hiring executives.

BlackRock hasn't pinned its expansion to any one single product or strategy, while Pimco until recently relied on Gross's top-performing bond funds to fuel a more than sixfold surge in assets to $1.35 trillion over the past decade.

"There can't be more than a few handfuls of people in history who've had the track record, the longevity, and the influence that Bill and Pimco has had," Fink said yesterday.

Gross said that he admired BlackRock's ETF business and would like to build out Pimco's products in that area.

"I'd take their ETF franchise," Gross said to laughter from the audience of UCLA alumni. "I don't know if I'd pay for it but I'd certainly take it if I could take the best of BlackRock."

By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam and Erik Schatzker |

The Rise of a Euro Doomsayer By LANDON THOMAS Jr. Nov 18, 2011 (New York Times)

2011-11-18T06:12:00.002+08:00

LONDON — The euro zone was unraveling, just as he had long predicted, yet Bernard Connolly, Europe’s most persistent prophet of doom, still faced a skeptical audience.

“The current policy of lending plus austerity will lead to social unrest,” Mr. Connolly told investors and policy makers at a conference held this spring in Los Angeles by the Milken Institute, arguing the case that Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain could not simply cut their way to recovery.

“And one should not forget that of the four countries we are talking about, all have had civil wars, fascist dictatorships and revolutions. That is history,” he concluded, his voice rising above the chortles and gasps coming from the audience and the Europeans on his panel. “And that is the future if this malignant lunacy of monetary union is pursued and crushes these countries into the ground.”

Mr. Connolly has been warning for years that Europe was heading for disaster. As an E.U. economist in the early 1990s, he helped design the common currency’s framework, but he was later dismissed after he expressed turncoat views. In 1998, just months before the euro’s introduction, he predicted that at least one of Europe’s weakest countries would face a rising budget deficit, a shrinking economy and a “downward spiral from which there is no escape unaided. When that happens, the country concerned will be faced with a risk of sovereign default.”

Now, as the European debt crisis that began in Greece threatens to engulf even France along with Italy and Spain, Mr. Connolly’s longstanding proposition that the foisting of a common currency upon so many disparate countries would end in ruin is getting a much wider hearing.

Hedge funds looking to bet on a euro zone breakup scour his research reports for insights.

Longer-term investors who listened to his decade-long recommendations to steer clear of the bonds of Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain are congratulating themselves for not falling into the trap that bankrupted MF Global, the investment firm run until recently by Jon S. Corzine, the former Goldman Sachs executive and New Jersey governor.

And central bankers outside the euro zone are among his most faithful readers.

In 2008, Mark Carney, the governor of the Canadian central bank, cited the British-born Mr. Connolly, along with the far more prominent Nouriel Roubini of New York University and the Harvard economist Kenneth S. Rogoff, as having been among the few who foresaw the global financial crisis. Mervyn A. King, the governor of the Bank of England, who has become increasingly vocal about the euro zone’s problems, is also a longtime follower.

Nicolas Carn, an independent research analyst and money manager who worked previously as chief investment strategist for the London-based hedge fund Odey Asset Management, is one of his biggest fans. “Bernard has influenced me a great deal,” Mr. Carn said. “He has shaped my views on Europe and contributed significantly to my investment performance.”

To be sure, Mr. Connolly was not the only analyst who raised early warning flags about the euro project. Economists like Martin Feldstein of Harvard and Paul Krugman, a Princeton economist who writes an op-ed column for The New York Times, have been longtime critics, as were many experts in euro-skeptic Britain. But few have gone on to devote more or less their entire professional career to exposing Europe’s monetary fault lines.

Unlike many critics of the euro, Mr. Connolly, 61, plies his trade mostly in private, eschewing cable television programs, opinion pages and policy journals. He represents a new breed of independent analyst who has come increasingly to the fore since the financial crisis broke in 2008.

As investment banks have cut down on staff and remain constrained by their banking and government relationships, independent analysts like Mr. Connolly, who are mostly pessimistic in outlook, have become highly popular for hedge fund investors who wager large sums of money betting against the currencies, bonds and banks of countries heading for trouble.

Mr. Connolly, who used to work for AIG Financial Products, the banking arm of the giant insurance company American International Group, until it went into government receivership, now operates out of a nondescript office in New York, where he is said to pound out as much as 20,000 words of analysis a week.

Like those of other such analysts scattered around the globe, his insights do not come cheap. While the price Mr. Connolly charges is not public, analysts of his stature command, in some cases, as much as $100,000 for a full array of services, including regular meetings and phone calls along with written reports.

And like most of them, Mr. Connolly — the Oxford-educated son of a bus driver from Manchester — guards his privacy zealously. He declined numerous requests to comment for this article. People who know him say that his public reticence is also fed by a lingering anxiety that officials in Brussels will exact some form of revenge.

The origins of that fear as well as the anger and passion that drive him date to 1995, when he took a leave from his job to write “The Rotten Heart of Europe,” an excoriating history of the failure of the euro’s predecessor, the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

In Britain, where suspicions of common European economic policy ran very high, the book was a hit for its attacks on the architects of the European common currency, including Jacques Delors, the former head of the European Commission, and Jean-Claude Trichet, the French finance official who would go on to run the European Central Bank for eight years.

The book was greeted less enthusiastically in Brussels; Mr. Connolly was told not to return from leave to reclaim his position. Moreover, he was the subject of an investigation by the European Commission into whether he had disclosed any proprietary information in his book. Investigators found that he had not.

In 2005, while working at A.I.G. and at a time when Greek, Portuguese and Irish bonds were trading at rates barely higher than Germany’s, Mr. Connolly persuaded a small group of hedge funds and independent investors to bet on a euro zone crack-up.

They did so by buying the credit-default swaps of what he saw as the most vulnerable European countries. When fears that those countries would default took off in 2008 and 2009, sending the values of those swaps skyward, they were able to sell out — reaping large profits.

“It took a while, but we finally were able to monetize Bernard’s views on Europe,” said James Aitken, who worked with him at A.I.G. and described his job then as translating Mr. Connolly’s arcane musings into actual investment strategies.

While other investors have also profited from following Mr. Connolly’s advice, Mr. Aitken says that Mr. Connolly’s true passion is to try to prevent the social and political train wreck he fears is just around the corner.

“He is anguished,” said Mr. Aitken, who runs his own research service for investors, called Notes from a Small Island, from his home in London. “He sees where this is going and is warning against the human tragedy.”

Yra Harris, a trader on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, is another of Mr. Connolly’s supporters in the investment world. “Bernard is like no one I have ever met,” he said, citing his work as inspiration for some recent profits he made selling Italian bond futures.

Mr. Harris is so convinced that Mr. Connolly’s views should find a wider audience that he and a colleague have offered to pay Mr. Connolly’s publisher $75,000 to reissue 25,000 copies of the out-of-print “Rotten Heart.” (A used hardback now sells for $440.85 on Amazon.)

“I will pay out of my pocket because he has meant so much to me,” Mr. Harris said. “Each time I talk to him, it’s like I’ve been to Harvard for four years.”

Commodities decoupling?

2011-11-17T09:57:00.002+08:00

Last month we have observed US Dollars wriggling its own direction irrespective of GOLD - CRUDE OIL and other commodities. Now you do not hear any new theme for the market except EURO cracking up. Why didn't we hear USA bankcrupt? US Dollars finito? Why? Why? Why? If you want to follow the media herd.....which is the most stupid and silly things to do...listen to news ..... keep looking for news .....repeat what news/rumors to others ...... and not have your every own independent analysis!!!

When crude oil was US$90 few months ago... we have Ghostman Sucks recommending a buy for it is going to the moon. When it drops to US$70 ...Ghostman disappear like a Ghost. Now it is back up, trust me the Ghostman and Devil will come dancing again.

I do not know why Crude oil is going up or down. One day you hear it is going up because USA economy didn't crash despite high unemployment. Next day you hear oil went down because of Greece. The following session it went up because EURO referendum. Next it drop because of Portugal. I do not know how all this affects the demand for oil and how the demand precipitates overnight to cause the fall! The reasons and rationale are never ending irrespective of the relationship to demand and supply!!! Now can you believe that people buy and accept such news!!!!

This time we see Oil goes up, US DOllars goes up and Agro commodities down.....Metal sideways. Now all are dancing to different tunes.

Where is the favorite theme safe haven? Carried away by tsunami wave???? With all this rubbish news and events reported.... Let us wait and see if greater opportunities develop for me to exploit.

^^^^ @ @ ^^^^

CPO ======>>>> UP or DOWN trend ?

2011-11-16T07:44:00.003+08:00

We all know there is no accepted Universal cohesive agreement with regards to trend reversal. One can easily claim and later disclaim the trend has reversed. Is the break of a Line considered and accepted as TREND reversal?

Anyone can easily select a LOW point "A" and radiates the line sloping UP. Choose a Point "B" and extends all the way to the right. If the price breaks this line sometime in the future, does it constitutes an accept major trend change? If Yes, how does one explains when price aggressively rebound and goes back above the BLUE "MAJOR" line? Now you have to retreat and explain .... ooops .... bloopers! Do you draw the next RED line radiating from the same origin as "THE NEW MAJOR" LINE". Why didn't select a LOW point before "B" and draw a UP rising line and call it a Major trend line?

What does one takes into consideration when calling it a major trend line? Isn't this a very extremely subjective call? What you opine as "objective" can be deemed "subjective" by others within the same charting or TA school. What is the definition of MAJOR trend? HOW do you qualify a trend reversal?

A six year old can choose a lowest point anywhere, anytime and draw it radiates up.

Go back to the basic and define what you want to measure. Put the defined parameter to qualify this definition. We can make less a fool of ourselves and vulnerable to others ridicules.

My chart is simple clean and easy. No candles to burn. No volume to count. Just price and velocity oscillators which I developed to track market. No major or minor trend. No lines to draw. No support and no resistance.

It doesn't mean that the violation of the JalanRaya band is a trend reversal. There are many occasions price violates the band exceed and retreat back to original path. I have my own definition of trend reversal and definitely it is NOT using just a simple one liner.

It is time to go back to school and re-look at the mirror. The answers lie in asking honest simple basic questions. The more sophisticated the questions the more complicated the answers and need not means more reliable.

Until the next time.... Enjoy.

China cannot dispose of treasuries of big countries: CIC

2011-11-15T21:11:00.001+08:00

November 15, 2011, 12.11 pm (Singapore time)

HONG KONG - China Investment Corp (CIC) cannot dispose of its holdings of debt issued by major foreign countries because it will hurt the value of its own portfolio if it does so, the general manager of the sovereign fund said on Tuesday.

'China cannot dispose of the sovereign debt of others, especially some large countries, because our assets on hand would also devalue,' Gao Xiqing told the China Overseas Investment Summit.

CIC was established to seek higher returns from riskier investments using part of the country's foreign exchange stockpile, which at more than US$3 trillion is the largest in the world. -- REUTERS

A basket of Juicy cherries

2011-11-14T13:48:00.000+08:00

Cherry picking like stocks.

Red Cherry First Harvest

2011-11-14T11:50:00.002+08:00

This is the first Red sweet juicy harvest from the back of my house after 8 years.

Red Juicy Plums should be harvesting in end December. They are green and not ripe for picking.

Wilmar Q3 profit jumps 23.7% to US$321m Published November 10, 2011 By FELDA CHAY

2011-11-10T19:21:00.002+08:00

PALM oil refiner Wilmar International reported a 23.7 per cent year-on-year surge in third-quarter net profit to US$321 million (S$407.7 million), with many of its key product segments seeing a jump in sales volumes.

The earnings rise, however, falls short of the US$443.3 million mean estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Wilmar said in a statement that it was hit by foreign exchange loss from intercompany loans to subsidiaries, as the US dollar strengthened towards the end of the July-September 2011 quarter. It also incurred a net loss on investment securities following the declines seen in global equity markets.

(Many who believe US$ was going to tank, pay a price for believing something hearsay rather than strategically hedge if US$ strengthened!!! Never mind Wilmar and shareholders are financially sound. Even the risk management team fails to successfully mitigate the US$ risk!!!!)

Excluding exceptional items such as these, net profit rose 157 per cent to US$442.4 million from US$172.4 million, said the firm.

Earnings per share was 5 US cents, compared with 4.1 US cents a year ago. Revenue surged 68.7 per cent to US$13.1 billion.

Wilmar's chief executive Kuok Khoon Hong said of the company's outlook: 'The group remains positive of its prospects, despite uncertainties in the global economy, due to the resilience in the demand for agricultural commodities and the continued growth of Asian economies.'

The plantations and palm oil mills, and sugar businesses are expected to benefit from firm palm oil and sugar prices. Its consumer products segment will also 'enjoy improving margins' from the lifting of price restrictions in China, and lower feedstock costs, said Mr Kuok.

China accounts for more than 40 per cent of Wilmar's revenue, and the company has experienced a difficult operating environment in the country over the previous quarters. In Q2, however, the Chinese government lifted its price restrictions on cooking oil.

The picture is less rosy for its oilseeds and grains division. 'The operating environment for oilseeds and grains will continue to be challenging as crush margins remain under pressure,' said Mr Kuok.

Wilmar's results prompted OCBC Investment Research to bump up its FY2011 and FY2012 revenue estimates yesterday. However, it downgraded Wilmar to 'sell' from 'hold', saying that the recent run-up in its share price 'appears to have more than priced in the margin recovery'. OCBC also said that it is keeping the company's core earnings forecasts largely unchanged due to weaker margin assumptions.

For the third quarter, the oilseeds and grains business reported profit before tax of US$99.7 million compared with loss before tax of US$37.1 million last year. Revenue rose 42.2 per cent to US$3.5 billion, accounting for 26.8 per cent of the group's overall turnover. The unit saw both high selling prices and volumes, while 'timely purchases of raw materials' helped lift margins, said Wilmar.

Net profit for its palm and laurics segment rose 14 per cent to US$170.8 million, driven by higher selling prices and sales volume. Revenue climbed 55.7 per cent to US$6.6 billion.

Wilmar's new sugar milling division reported its first quarter of profit before tax of US$57.2 million. Revenue was US$1.3 billion. The division was set up following its acquisition of Australia sugar producer Sucrogen and Indonesia's Jawamanis Rafinasi last year.

As at Sept 30, net asset value per share was US$2, compared with US$1.853 at end-December. Cash and cash equivalents held was US$1.5 billion, up from US$596.3 million last year.

For the nine-month period, net profit rose 9.5 per cent to US$1.1 billion. Revenue was up 55.9 per cent at US$33.2 billion.

© Copyright Singapore Press Holdings 2010.

Dry-bulk ship owners reject multi-year charters (November 10, 2011)

2011-11-10T19:00:00.002+08:00

They expect stronger demand for raw materials to reduce vessel glut (Expect is wishful and hopeful thinking ^^^ @ @ ^^^)

(LONDON) Owners of dry-bulk ships are rejecting multi-year charters in expectation that stronger demand for raw materials will reduce a glut of vessels that is depressing rates, according to Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc.

Charterers are approaching owners with offers of bookings for three to five years, Sophocles Zoullas, Eagle Bulk's chief executive officer, said on a conference call on Tuesday. The New York-based company, the second-largest owner of supramax vessels, is declining to hire out any of its ships under such arrangements, he said.

'What we're very focused on is not doing what we call a classic shipowner mistake, which is chartering your fleet out for long periods at the bottom of your cycle,' Mr Zoullas said. Eagle Bulk, which reported a third-quarter loss on Monday, must be ready for improved rates beyond 2012, he said.

Single-voyage rents for dry-bulk ships have plunged in 2011 to the lowest levels in at least five years as a glut of new vessels outpaces demand, weighing on rates for lengthier bookings.

While seaborne trade is expanding, the fleet's 14 per cent growth this year is pressuring rates, Mr Zoullas said. The biggest drop in supramax rents since January helped to pull the Baltic Dry Index down on Tuesday.

The daily cost to hire a supramax commodity carrier for three years has not exceeded US$14,000 since May and is down 22 per cent from a year ago, according to data from Clarkson Research Services Ltd, a unit of the world's largest shipbroker. Chartering capesize vessels, the largest in the fleet, for five years costs US$18,500 a day, 34 per cent less than a year ago.

Single-voyage supramax rates have averaged US$14,530 a day in 2011, data from the exchange show. They are on course for the lowest annual figure since 2005, according to the exchange, a London-based assessor of freight costs on more than 50 maritime routes.

The index, which measures costs to ship dry-bulk commodities, declined for a 10th session as rents dropped for the three ship types that it tracks that are smaller than capesizes. The gauge fell 0.4 per cent to 1,759.

Daily supramax rents retreated 3.1 per cent, the most since Jan 28, to US$14,228 a day, according to the exchange.

Panamaxes, the largest ships that navigate the Panama Canal, fell 1.3 per cent to US$14,287. Handysizes, the smallest vessels in the index, slid 1.8 per cent to US$10,015.

Rents for capesizes advanced for the first time in two weeks on increased hiring to load coal from Colombia and iron ore from Brazil, booking lists showed.

Rates increased 2.5 per cent to US$23,458 a day, rebounding from a 28 per cent slide over the prior nine sessions. -- Bloomberg

(Many owners thought they know the business until the ship business sank!!!..... The truth is I do not know how long this down cycle will last. I will follow till it turns UP not bottom out. It can bottom out and remain on the trough.....hehehe)

Noble CEO Quits After First Loss in 14 Years By Yuriy Humber Bloomberg (Nov 10, 2011)

2011-11-10T18:34:00.002+08:00

(IT IS TIME THE MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS MAKE THE BOARD and SENIOR MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR CARELESS ACTS. SIME has got the CEO's head chopped. How about other listed Berhad on Bursa? Who will be held responsible and what type of actions can be taken? Someone need to explore and test water for this cases of poor bad management in Malaysia. What rights does a minority shareholder got and avenue to address their grievances?)

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Noble Group Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Ricardo Leiman quit after the commodity supplier reported its first loss in about 14 years, sending the shares down by the most since 1998.

Chairman and founder Richard Elman, 71, will be acting CEO until talks with Leiman's unidentified replacement are completed, the Singapore-listed supplier of energy, food and mining commodities said yesterday after the market closed. Noble reported a third-quarter loss of $17.5 million, compared with a profit of $157.2 million a year earlier.

The loss and Leiman's resignation follow a drop in global commodities demand since June on concern that Greece and other euro-zone members may default on debt and China's economic growth has slowed. More than S$2 billion ($1.6 billion) was wiped off the value of the company as analysts slashed forecasts and cut ratings.

"It was the Ricardo resignation that had more shock effect than the loss itself," said Ben Santoso, an analyst with DBS Vickers Securities in Singapore. "It leaves more questions on where he is going, whether there will be more management changes, whether Richard will pursue a different strategy."

Noble slumped as much as 28 percent, the most since Sept. 10, 1998, to S$1.160, and was at S$1.190 as of 12:56 p.m. local time, down 26 percent.

'Wipeout' Result

UOB Kay Hian slashed its earnings estimates for Noble by 39 percent for 2011 and 32 percent for next year and cut its rating to "sell" after describing the loss as a wipeout. Credit Suisse Group AG reduced its rating to "neutral" and DMG & Partners Securities downgraded to "sell" from "buy."

"We're disappointed with the performance, but we believe it is transitory in nature," Leiman, 45, said on a conference call before his resignation was announced. The loss was based on "unrealized mark-to-market losses" created in "very volatile market conditions," he said.

The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index fell 23 percent in the quarter to Sept. 30, its biggest contraction in three years. The company cited defaults by U.S. cotton farmers and plunging carbon credits in Europe for the loss. Operating income from Noble's supply chain almost halved to $242 million in the third quarter from a year earlier.

Deal Maker

Leiman, a Brazilian Dutch who has a degree in economics from the University of Sao Paulo, became chief executive officer in December 2009. He joined from Louis Dreyfus Corp. in London where he was credited with turning around the group's commodity business. Leiman resigned for personal reasons, the company said after the conference call.

Leiman, who will remain as an advisor, led Noble into $1.9 billion of takeovers including sugar mills in Brazil for $950 million in December and a retail energy unit from Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Sempra Energy for $317 million in September last year.

Noble is planning to raise about $700 million in an initial public offering of its agriculture unit, two people with knowledge of the matter said yesterday.

The company "limited trading opportunities" because of the market volatility and uncertainty, Chief Financial Officer Robert Van Der Zalm said yesterday. Noble has $10 billion in untapped credit facility commitments and no liquidity issues, he said. He said the loss was the first in about 14 years.

Cotton Slump

"Noble's agriculture business isn't as resilient as we had thought and their energy business isn't growing despite their acquisition of Sempra," said Zuo Li, a Singapore-based analyst at IIFL Securities Pte Ltd., who cut Noble's price target to S$1.13 yesterday before Leiman's resignation.

A jump in cotton prices in the first half of the year, followed by a recent drop, led farmers to default on contracts, especially in the U.S., Noble said. The company said it had to honor its obligations to cotton buyers by purchasing in the spot market, which eroded profit margins.

Cotton has slumped 56 percent from record 219.70 cents a pound traded on March 7 on ICE Futures U.S. in New York as the global economy slowed and demand fell in China, the world's largest buyer.

Noble isn't alone in getting hit from price swings in the fiber. Glencore International AG dismissed its head of cotton Mark Allen this year after having hired him 18 months earlier from Noble, the Financial Times said Sept. 25, citing people it didn't identify.

Olam International Ltd., the Singapore-based trader of commodities including cotton, fell 6.1 percent to S$2.460 in Singapore trading. The company reports its third-quarter earnings on Nov. 14.

Carbon Credits

Earnings were also hurt by a drop in Europe's Certified Emission Reductions, or carbon credits, to as low as 6.35 euros on Nov. 3 from 13.70 euros on March 16. The company's remaining risk of losses on carbon credits is "very small," Leiman said.

Noble has hired JPMorgan Chase & Co. as a global coordinator and Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as joint bookrunners for a potential listing of its agriculture unit, said two people with knowledge of the matter, who declined to be identified because the information is private. The IPO may take place in the first half of next year, they said.

Noble has yet to make a final decision on the spinoff and should it go ahead, it will remain a "major shareholder," while a "partial divestment" will help raise funds to reinvest into the business, Van Der Zalm said.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/11/09/bloomberg_articlesLUFHW80YHQ0X.DTL#ixzz1dIW5YIaM

IMF's Lagarde says world risks `lost decade,' Asian economies should guard against impact

2011-11-09T23:14:00.000+08:00

Wednesday November 9, 2011,

BEIJING (AP) -- The head of the International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday the global economy faces the risk of a "lost decade" of little or no growth and Asia should be on guard to deal with a downturn.

Without bold, coordinated action, the world might face worsening financial instability and a possible collapse of demand, said Christine Lagarde, on her first visit to Beijing since becoming IMF managing director in July.

"Ultimately, we could run the risk of what some commentators are already calling a lost decade," she told reporters.

Asian economies are relatively strong but need to be "prepared for any storm," said the former French finance minister. She said Asian governments that have tightened monetary policy to fight inflation should "pause a little bit."

"Asia is not immune. Let's make no mistake," Lagarde said.

Last month, the Washington-based IMF trimmed its forecast for Asia's growth this year to an average of 6.3 percent from its previous outlook of 7 percent, citing Europe's debt crisis and a possible U.S. slowdown.

After a strong start to the year, Asian growth slowed because of sluggish demand from advanced economies and Japan's March tsunami, which disrupted industrial production and exports across the region.

Regulators pushed MF Global on risky bets months ago (November 3, 2011)

2011-11-04T18:11:00.002+08:00

NEW YORK - US regulators started raising concerns about MF Global's European sovereign debt exposure as early as June, according to a source familiar with the matter, four months before the company's collapse into bankruptcy.

The revelation comes as MF Global tries to account for hundreds of millions of dollars in client accounts that are still missing, according to a federal official. While the size is down from an initial US$900 million that was missing, the source told Reuters that regulators are not sure where the money went, and why they can't find it.

The meltdown of Jon Corzine's firm after high-risk bets on European debt should spark reforms to separate retail from investment banking operations, according 'Bond King' Bill Gross, who says it marks another example of how Wall Street has 'lost its way'.

Not long ago, Wall Street was witnessing the comeback of Corzine, the ex-Goldman Sachs chief and former New Jersey governor, when he took the helm of MF Global. But the recent revelation of US$6.3 billion of European bond positions caused the ratings agencies to cut to MF Global's debt to junk status, speeding its descent into bankruptcy.

The implications for the broader market so far, however, are limited, according to US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

'It appears to be an idiosyncratic case,' Mr Bernanke told reporters. 'We are monitoring the possible impacts on funding markets and elsewhere, and so far we have not seen any significant impact on financial stability.'

Though the firm's failure played out in a matter of days, regulators started turning the screws on MF Global months ago.

Around June, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), one of many regulators that policed the firm, became concerned that MF Global had a substantial position in European sovereign debt and was not appropriately holding capital against it, the source told Reuters.

FINRA began conversations with MF Global about whether it was appropriate under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles to consider the exposure to be off balance sheet, according to the source, who was not authorised to speak publicly.

FINRA felt that regardless of GAAP, MF Global should recognise how much the market value of the sovereign debt-related holdings had declined, and consulted with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the source said.

After lengthy conversations with FINRA and the SEC, MF Global yielded and infused the additional capital called for, something the firm disclosed on Sept 1.

Those deals were attractive because they were financed in the repo market, according to Thomson Reuters columnist Bethany McLean. The company was essentially earning money by receiving more interest on the bonds than it was paying to finance the instruments.

When the bonds matured, MF Global planned to pay back the money it borrowed. The repo transactions were treated as off balance sheet assets and liabilities, even though MF Global still bore the risk that the issuer would default.

The exposure to sovereign debt was not included in MF Global's calculation of value-at-risk, according to its filings. That means MF Global recognised a gain or loss on the transaction at the time of the sale.

The filings do not say how much of the gain was recognised upfront, Mr McLean wrote. But if it were a substantial portion, then these transactions would have frontloaded the firm's earnings. That, in turn, may have helped cover the fact that MF Global's core business was struggling.

It all points to the fact the Wall Street model is broken, according to PIMCO's Mr Gross.

'Do we have a better example today than MF Global in terms of the mingling of those two particular aspects of capital allocation?' Mr Gross, who runs the US$242.2 billion PIMCO Total Return portfolio, said at a Charles Schwab Corp conference in San Francisco.

'So the closer we get back to separating the two, I suppose the better from the standpoint of reform.'

Missing millions
The European debt trades pushed the company into bankruptcy, but the heat on MF Global now is around why it cannot account for a large amount of customer money that was supposed to be kept separate from other funds, sources said.

Regulators are trying to determine if the brokerage used some of the money to support its own trades.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has not decided whether it is going to launch a probe into MF Global, but it remains an option the agency could consider, a source told Reuters. The agency typically does not announce when it starts an investigation.

'We don't want people to leap to any kind of conclusion that there is something criminal here, and we don't know that,' the source said.

Meanwhile, Brokers at MF Global on Wednesday stopped processing liquidation orders from customers or transferring accounts to other brokerages, market sources told Reuters. While it is not clear why, the trustee in charge of liquidating he brokerage set an emergency hearing for late Wednesday to ask the bankruptcy court to approve transferring certain customer accounts to other brokers.

One piece of good news for MF Global on the money front came from Intercontinental Exchange, one of the world's largest exchange and clearinghouse operators. It said on Wednesday that it received all of the margin money it required from MF Global and its customers.

'The press has reported that there may be potentially a shortfall of funds in customer accounts, but in our case ICE has always been in receipt of the full amount of margin moneys that are required for the positions in our clearinghouse,' ICE Chief Executive Jeffrey Sprecher said on a conference call.

He said ICE began the default process on Monday, when MF Global, a big commodities player, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

'Afraid I may not get back anything' Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Schwab, said that the MF Global situation seemed to be more a miss by the auditors than a regulatory problem.

'It may show that we don't have adults manning the regulatory store, and that to the extent that this was a miss on the part of auditors, that should have been obvious suggests that this is still a problem,' she said at Schwab's San Francisco conference.

'It's another hit to the confidence certainly of individual investors who have, maybe rightly so, felt that the whole game is rigged against them.'

That blow to confidence played out Wednesday in Singapore, where dozens of worried retail investors lined up at the MF Global office throughout the day seeking to recoup their money. Singapore's central bank said later in the day it would prioritise safeguarding the interests of investors who had dealings with MF Global's Singapore unit.

So far, all the investors received was a form to complete after being told no money would be disbursed until liquidators wound down the bankrupt US brokerage.

'Of course I'm afraid I may not get back anything, that is why I am here,' said Andre Chia, a 32-year-old pilot. -- REUTERS

Goldman sued for $1.07 billion over Timberwolf CDO - Narayanan Somasundaram and Jonathan Stempel

2011-10-29T02:20:00.001+08:00

On Friday October 28, 2011

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS - News) has been hit with a new $1.07 billion lawsuit for having allegedly sold risky debt that it expected would tumble in value to an Australian hedge fund, causing that fund to become insolvent.

The lawsuit by the Basis Yield Alpha Fund alleges fraud, breach of contract and negligence, and seeks to recoup $67 million of losses plus $1 billion of punitive damages.

It was filed on Thursday with a New York state court in Manhattan. Basis Yield was managed by Sydney-based Basis Capital Funds Management Ltd.

Basis Yield sued three months after a U.S. judge dismissed a similar case, saying the fund could not sue in federal court under U.S. securities laws because its investment in the Timberwolf 2007-1 collateralized debt obligation did not qualify as a "domestic" transaction.

Timberwolf was cited in a scathing U.S. Senate panel report in April that faulted Goldman, Deutsche Bank AG (XETRA:DBKGN.DE - News) and others for hawking debt they expected to perform poorly.

That report said Goldman kept marketing Timberwolf even after Thomas Montag, an executive who is now Bank of America Corp's (NYSE:BAC - News) co-chief operating officer, in an email to a colleague called Timberwolf "one shitty deal."

In the new complaint, the Basis Yield fund said it entered $80.8 million of credit default swaps related to "triple-A" and "double-A" rated Timberwolf debt. It said it also bought $12.3 million of "triple-B" rated debt tied to subprime residential mortgages and issued by another CDO, Point Pleasant 2007-1.

These transactions, the fund said, "provided a vehicle for Goldman to unload its toxic inventory and to profit from the decline in value of the very securities it was recommending that its clients purchase."

Goldman, it added, even offered sales staff "ginormous" credits to shed the securities.

Within weeks, the transactions began to tumble in value, and Basis Yield began to liquidate within two months. It said it lost $56.3 million on Timberwolf in less than six weeks, and $10.8 million on Point Pleasant in less than three months.

Goldman on Friday denied wrongdoing. In a statement, it said "we acted appropriately and refute in the strongest possible terms any suggestion that Basis Capital was misled." It also said Basis Capital "advertised itself as one of the world's most experienced hedge funds and CDO investors."

The case is Basis Yield Alpha Fund (Master) v. Goldman Sachs Group Inc et al, New York State Supreme Court, New York County, No. 652996/2011.

Obama acts to ease burden of student loans By Alister Bull (Reuters)

2011-10-26T22:31:00.000+08:00

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama is taking steps to ease the burden of student loans, the White House said on Tuesday, potentially helping millions of cash-strapped college graduates in a tough economy.

Obama plans to accelerate a plan to cap student loan payments at 10 percent of income, bringing it forward to start in 2012 instead of 2014.

"Steps like these won't take the place of the bold action we need from Congress to boost our economy and create jobs, but they will make a difference," he said in a statement.

The loans initiative will be the third such move by Obama in as many days, following action to aid homeowners and boost hiring of military veterans. The White House wants to show he is an activist president battling a "do-nothing" Congress.
The loan changes do not require approval by Congress.

Republican lawmakers blocked a $447 billion jobs plan put forward by Obama last month because it raises some taxes.

Students helped push Obama into the White House in 2008. As he campaigns for reelection in 2012, Obama's public approval ratings have fallen near 40 percent, the low of his presidency, because of discontent with his economic stewardship.
Americans owe more on student loans than on outstanding credit card debt, and total loans outstanding are slated to exceed $1 trillion this year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

(TZ – Now you see why it happens this way? White kids not like Asians kids. Asian kids need to be breast feed till after graduate from Uni. White kids that I know takes loans to study and pay through their nose.
In OZland, ozie kids can take gomen loan to pay or self finance or parents pays for uni fees. If take gomen loan called HECS, you start to pay when you are employed. No job, no need to pay. Auto deduction!!!)

The rise in private student lending and growing debt defaults have also been highlighted by the Occupy Wall Street protesters.

Obama will announce the student loan measure in Denver on Wednesday as he wraps up a swing through western states that will be vital to his re-election campaign in 2012.
The White House estimates the loan changes could cut monthly payments for 1.6 million graduates.

Student debt will also be forgiven after 20 years, compared with 25 years under current law.

More than 36 million Americans have federal student loan debt, but only 450,000 have so far taken advantage of the existing income-based repayment program.

Obama will also make changes to allow 6 million students to bundle together certain federal loans to allow a single monthly payment, reducing the risk of default caused by juggling multiple debt obligations.

The option will be open from January and those that take it up will also get a 0.5 percentage point cut in the interest rate on some of their loans, lowering monthly payments and potentially saving them hundreds of dollars in interest.

"College graduates are entering one of the toughest job markets in recent memory, and we have a way to help them save money by consolidating their debt and capping their loan payments," said Secretary of Education Arne Duncan.

Malaysia's debt climbs to RM407b on the back of massive spending spree - October 25, 2011

2011-10-26T00:25:00.001+08:00

Debt stands at more than 50% of GDP for second year running, latest report shows By S JAYASANKARAN

MALAYSIA'S national debt rose by 12.3 per cent to over RM407 billion (S$164 billion) in 2010 - making it the second year running that the debt to GDP stood at over 50 per cent.

The Auditor-General released the figures in his annual report which was revealed yesterday in Parliament. And while the report acknowledged that Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.2 per cent in 2010, it also said that the government owed 53.1 per cent of GDP, slightly down from 53.7 per cent the previous year.

'The ratio of the federal government debt to GDP at the end of 2010 is 53.1 per cent, and over 50 per cent for the second year running,' Auditor-General Ambrin Buang wrote.

The figure is a reflection of the spending spree the country went on to mitigate the effects of the 2009 global financial crisis.

At its peak that year, Malaysia's budget deficit rose to 7.6 per cent of GDP, one of the highest in history. It's since come down to 5.4 per cent of GDP and the government projects that it will decline further to 4.7 per cent of GDP next year.

Such has been the pace in debt accumulation that over the space of six years, total federal government debt has actually doubled since 2004. 'This rising trend should be a cause for concern,' wrote economic commentator Anil Netto in a recent blog posting.

Meanwhile, the country's debt position is coming close to breaching legislative levels set a long time ago by Parliament.

According to the Auditor-General's report, public debt from domestic sources rose by RM41.76 billion to RM390.36 billion last year while loans from foreign sources rose to RM16.75 billion, up RM2.96 billion.

But the Loan (Local) and Government Investment Act sets a domestic debt ceiling of 55 per cent (of GDP) for the government while the External Loans Act 1963 limits foreign loan exposure to RM35 billion.

According to the report, the domestic debt level at the end of 2010 stood at 51 per cent of GDP.

The danger for the government is another recession stemming from the West's economic woes.

The reason: it simply does not have the resources to spend its way out of it like it did in 2009. On top of that, subsidies on fuel and other essentials like cooking oil, milk, rice and sugar remain intractably high at RM32 billion this year.

Unfortunately, the government's debt position keeps rising with no end, seemingly, in sight.

According to the country's central bank, the national debt as of June 30, 2011 had risen to RM437 billion with domestic debt amounting to RM421 billion and foreign debt at RM16 billion.

(TZ -1Malaysia Boleh....after that Boh Liaw)

Natural beauty and simple chart

2011-10-25T23:52:00.002+08:00

A responsible and ethical guide does not focus on how to make money. The start of a journey is discovering and understanding inner yourself truthfully. It is not about the charts or candles or volume…..etc. It is about you and market! The final step comes to the charts. The more unnecessary accessories you add to your charts the more complicated (not sophisticated) it becomes! Just keep your chart simple, neat and clean. Too much cosmetics kills the natural beauty. Try kissing a girl or lady with the layers of cosmetic icing! Tell me how it taste like!

Opportunist exploits the situation by putting the bait first. The bait is how to make money fast and quick. Conveniently it is sold as implying “sure win” if you follow me! Now nowhere will this opportunist talks about risks and management. Simply because they want to take the money from your bank! Human are greedy when it involve money. Greed will blind human and shut down the thinking brain.

Opportunists are No1 sales people exploiting on others weakness. The approach is to sell you something that is supposed to make you rich. None will start on the non-monetary PSYCHOLOGICAL importance. It is like the urge to learn driving. The driving school slogan – DRIVING LICENSE in 10hours instead of DEFENSIVE driving! Driving on the road the risk is either you drive into others or others drive into you! It is not about how fast you can drive or take corners during a bright sunny day. It is about how well you control the car during rainy days and takes corners on a wet road.

To drive a car is easy. To control a car safely takes skills and expertise! Trading is no different. When you take positions in market, it is like driving on autobahn. Everyone is speeding furiously. It is your responsibility to drive safely.

Who are the 1 percent? By Tami Luhby @CNNMoney October 20, 2011

2011-10-25T14:42:00.000+08:00

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Think it takes a million bucks to make it into the Top 1% of American taxpayers?

Think again. In 2009, it took just $343,927 to join that elite group, according to newly released statistics from the Internal Revenue Service.

Occupy Wall Street protesters have been railing against the Top 1%, trying to raise anger and awareness of the growing economic gap between the rich and everybody else in America.

But just who are these fortunate folks at the top of the income ladder?

Well, there were just under 1.4 million households that qualified for entry. They earned nearly 17% of the nation's income and paid roughly 37% of its income tax.
Collectively, their adjusted gross income was $1.3 trillion. And while $343,927 was the minimum AGI to be included, on average, Top 1-percenters made $960,000.
Meet the Occupy Wall Street protesters

But the income threshold for this exclusive group changes every year, largely with the performance of the stock market, experts said.

In 2007, when times were good on Wall Street, one needed to have an adjusted gross income of more than $424,000 to get into the highest rank. But the stock market decline in recent years has helped lower that bar back to a level not seen since 2002.

"The further up you go, the wider swings you see," said Pete Sepp, spokesman for the National Taxpayers Union. "They have a great deal of wealth sunk into the markets, which can vary quite widely."

While much of the wealthy's income comes from capital gains on investments, bonuses on the job can also give people the needed boost.

Just what jobs are those?

Many workers in the securities industry in New York likely qualify for the Top 1%.
These folks, many of whom work only blocks from where protesters are gathering in Zuccotti Park, made an average salary of just over $311,000 in 2009, according to the state Comptroller's Office. (This figure does not take into account certain income, losses and deductions that make up adjusted gross income.)

A separate study found that financial professionals made up about 14% of the top rank in 2005.

Executives, managers and supervisors working outside of finance accounted for 31%, the largest share, according to an analysis by Jon Bakija of Williams College, Adam Cole of the Treasury Department and Bradley Heim of Indiana University. Medical professionals came in at 15.7%, while lawyers made up 8.4%.

Over time, the Top 1% has claimed a bigger share of the income pie. In 2007, they earned 22.8% of the nation's income, more than double the amount in 1986, according to IRS data. The recession has since brought that slice down to just under 17% for 2009.

While those at the top have seen their incomes soar over time, middle-class incomes have stagnated.

"The higher up the income distribution you go, the more your income rose and the larger the share of total income gains went to your group," said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.

But as corporate profits and productivity have increased, workers aren't reaping the benefits, said Edward Wolff, a New York University economics professor who specializes in income inequality. That's helping spark the movement, which has spread across the country.

"There is a lot of anger and it's for a very good reason," Wolff said. "If all of the income gain goes to the top, there's not much left to go to the rest of the people."

Correction: An earlier version of this story included an incorrect timeframe for IRS income data. The most recent figures from the IRS are for 2009.

KLCI plunges 70 pts due to trades keyed by broker

2011-10-22T12:07:00.000+08:00

Syarina Hyzah Zakaria - theedgemalaysia.com - 21 October 2011

KUALA LUMPUR: Trades keyed in on select FBM KLCI stocks by a broker led to the index plunging 70 points late in the afternoon session on Friday, Oct 21.

However, the index recovered and closed 0.16% or 2.35 points lower at 1,438.83, weighed by losses at select blue chips.

An official from Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd in an e-mailed statement confirmed that the drop of the index at 4.41pm on Friday was due to trades keyed in by the said broker.

(TZ – Of course broker key in the order. Who else key in the order? Monkey? Ah So? Ali ? Ah Cow? Ahminah? Aneh? What a statement! Maybe rumors indicate not a broker? Maybe ALGOrithm trade?)

Among the stocks that fell steeply before paring down losses were KLK, DiGi and PPB.

Honest and Productive

2011-10-21T20:31:00.002+08:00

THE PARABLES OF JESUS (Scripture: Matthew 25:14-30 and Luke 19:12-27)

The Money in Trust (or The Talents)

14 "For it will be as when a man going on a journey called his servants and entrusted to them his property; 15 to one he gave five talents, to another two, to another one, to each according to his ability. Then he went away. 16 He who had received the five talents went at once and traded with them; and he made five talents more. 17 So also, he who had the two talents made two talents more. 18 But he who had received the one talent went and dug in the ground and hid his master's money. 19 Now after a long time the master of those servants came and settled accounts with them. 20 And he who had received the five talents came forward, bringing five talents more, saying, `Master, you delivered to me five talents; here I have made five talents more.' 21 His master said to him, `Well done, good and faithful servant; you have been faithful over a little, I will set you over much; enter into the joy of your master.' 22 And he also who had the two talents came forward, saying, `Master, you delivered to me two talents; here I have made two talents more.' 23 His master said to him, `Well done, good and faithful servant; you have been faithful over a little, I will set you over much; enter into the joy of your master.' 24 He also who had received the one talent came forward, saying, `Master, I knew you to be a hard man, reaping where you did not sow, and gathering where you did not winnow; 25 so I was afraid, and I went and hid your talent in the ground. Here you have what is yours.' 26 But his master answered him, `You wicked and slothful servant! You knew that I reap where I have not sowed, and gather where I have not winnowed? 27 Then you ought to have invested my money with the bankers, and at my coming I should have received what was my own with interest. 28 So take the talent from him, and give it to him who has the ten talents. 29 For to every one who has will more be given, and he will have abundance; but from him who has not, even what he has will be taken away. 30 And cast the worthless servant into the outer darkness; there men will weep and gnash their teeth.'

(TZ: The parable speaks first of the Master's trust in his servants. While he goes away he leaves them with his money to use as they think best. While there were no strings attached, this was obviously a test to see if the Master's workers would be industrious and reliable in their use of the money entrusted to them. The master rewards those who are industrious and faithful and he punishes those who sit by idly and who do nothing with his money. The essence of the parable seems to lie in the servants' conception of responsibility. Each servant entrusted with the master's money was faithful up to a certain point. The servant who buried the master's money was irresponsible. One can bury seeds in the ground and expect them to become productive because they obey natural laws. Coins, however, do not obey natural laws. They obey economic laws and become productive in circulation. The master expected his servants to be productive in the use of his money.

One must honest and responsible when dealing with money. One should not cheat or act dishonestly to gain wealth. Dishonest and cheaters are everywhere waiting like vultures to cream you dry. Be wary and careful of your path. Look at all the scams sprouting like weeds all over the financial blogs).

Bunjee Jump KLCi

2011-10-21T18:35:00.002+08:00

KLCI experience bunjee jump before recovery. What happened?

Local "FUN"d managers must be having fun and forgot to monitor the market to support index linked stocks in case selling of these stocks by overseas FUND managers. Now what do you think might have happened?

1) I think the local Fun manager when for tea break and was enjoying banana fritters (pisang goreng).

2) Maybe local Fun manager went home early to avoid traffic jam.

Well whatever the excuse, I am sure the local fun manager team will be will be summoned to a meeting to explain what happened. Maybe someone will take the rap for the fiasco!!!!

Enjoy your weekend.....

^^^ @@ ^^^

Crackdown on Commodity Trading: A Good Idea Spoiled By Jeff Macke

2011-10-20T19:14:00.000+08:00

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/crackdown-commodity-trading-good-idea-spoiled-185224368.html

After four years of fighting between government officials and commodity trading agencies of various stripes the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted 3-2 to impose limits on the number of futures and swap contracts a trader can hold. The new restrictions are intended to reduce speculation and cap price spikes in oil, gold, and grain prices, among other commodities. But will this work as intended?

It's mostly "brouhaha about getting speculation out of the markets," says Ed Meir, senior commodity analyst with MF Global. Leaving aside the fact that the only markets without speculation are grocery stores, the question is whether or not the CFTC's action is really a step towards eliminating spikes like we saw in 2008 when crude oil jumped to over $140 a barrel. The short answer is probably not.

Meir says this compromised solution is going to make it more difficult for a market to find the natural, unregulated price of the commodities. The "bigger spreads and bigger price distortions" Meir describes are, of course, a field of trading dreams for exactly the type of reckless speculators the rule is intended to put out of business. For this and other reasons Meir characterizes the restrictions "more than a little baffling."

Of course the CME has a long record of success in bursting what it views to be rampant speculation. When a commodity's price goes dangerously parabolic, the CME hikes margin requirements, forcing those who are potentially manipulating the price through leverage to come up with more cash immediately. The surprise margin hike is a brutally effective way to curb speculation, as those who were long silver in May of this year discovered the hard way.

Continuing down a logical path the government seems not to have found despite four years of looking, Meir suggests higher margin requirements should have been used here as well. "You need 50% money down to buy a stock, you need 20% down to buy a house," he explains. "You need 5% to buy commodities, which is still quite low."

The question isn't whether regulatory oversight is needed in order to level the playing field in markets, nor is it about the danger of bubbles forming in the markets. The problem here is that the officials creating these regulations seemingly lack rudimentary knowledge of the markets they purport to control.

At some point in the last 4 years the government was faced with the choice of not allowing traders to lever up 20:1 to buy commodities or decide on an arbitrary number of futures and swap contracts individual traders can hold. The fact that they went with the latter option goes a long way towards explaining why government regulations of trading haven't been effective since Joe Kennedy cleaned up Wall Street during the Great Depression.

Chartamental - Work at your own pace

2011-10-20T14:35:00.002+08:00

Stay focus and prepare a layout of what you want to do. Map the strategy. Map the battlefield. The wonder and most beautiful part about market is you can walk at your own pace. Ignore all the noises and rumblings. Ignore what others are doing. Focus on your path and remain steadfast. No one is going to bring the beef home. It is your responsibility to bring the beef home.

Do not be distracted by what your friends or unfriendly people are doing. If there is one thing I can say to people who aspire to be successful and consistent trader.....

STAY FOCUS and DO NOT BE DISTRACTED. WALK AT YOUR OWN PACE.

^^^^^ @ @ ^^^^^

Chartamental - Ignore the noises.

2011-10-20T09:21:00.003+08:00

There are many authors and charting software developers with the sole objective of commercial monetary gains pushing their products. Some of these products need to be customize to suit your personality and risk appetite.

I believe as a responsible trader, I should highlight techniques or ideas that are "gray" or "controversial". What we should continue to strive is to work on techniques that is consistently profitable.

It is not my duty to read, memorize and classify all the fancy candle formations. It is my responsibility to ensure I am safe in the market. I am not going to be distracted by people discrediting chartamental or trend analysis. I will continue the path I have been taking.

Ignore the noises. Focus on your objective and path. Empty containers make most noise. Full container load makes no noise. (Malay proverb - Tin Tin kosong bising. Diam diam ubi....berisi!)

How many times did my market call goes wrong from my record I posted earlier? I do not waste my time on recommending stocks. I have only a few stocks that I track with decent business operations. Yes, that is as much funnymental I will dwell in selecting stocks.

Forget EPS, ROI, PE, DCF, WACC ,,,,,,just understand decent business with manageable debts is all you need to do. Which company operates without debts? or Leverage? Loans?

Chartamental - STOP LOSS challenge

2011-10-19T09:14:00.003+08:00

Stop Loss popularize among technimental traders requires them to implemented exit strategy in the event the trade turns sour or bad! This is a very interesting and controversial strategy.

The premise of TA (TREND ANALYSIS who the hell says it is technical analysis!) is you are SUPPOSE to swim with the trend or tide. If you swim with the tide what is the use of STOP LOSS? IF you swim with the trend than you are suppose to book in PROFITS. Not losses! Understand? Who care what you believe, think or feel! Who bothers what Soros or Buffet think or say! You might be sorrowful or got buffet instead! All you are suppose to do is to listen to the market and swim with the flow. That is all you need to do.

Now the next challenge is to select the appropriate time frame. Is it intra-day or daily or weekly or......monthly? Remember trend DOES NOT MOVE IN STRAIGHT LINE across ALL TIME FRAME. Trend moves in zig-zag orderly manner, NOT RANDOM. It is this rebound and correction within the trend that will shake you or turn it into opportunities.

IF you use STOP LOSS indiscrimantely with understanding the rationale and apply it like a robot, you will keep on recording losses non-stop until your account is depleted. This is how novice and amateur are hang dried in the open air!

IF you want to follow many self-bestowed guru title (no university or college offer guru title so it must be self-honorary) or book like a robot without challenging each statement, go ahead and be a robot.

I do not want to use the term stop loss jargon. My strategy is to reduce or exit position when I read the momentum is reducing. If there is a need for me to exit completely, I will exit ALL without PREJUDICE.

IF YOU DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE TREND IS HEADING, DO YOU WANT TO ENTER A POSITION AND USE STOP LOSS? OR DO YOU THINK YOU SHOULD FOLLOW THE TREND AND TRAIL YOUR EXIT?????

*** @ @ ***

AUD USD chartamental not funnymental...

2011-10-18T20:02:00.001+08:00

See if you can make money trading with my AO Ripples and Wave indicators?? Aiya no need listen to funnymental. Just chartamental

Chartamental - Trading World

2011-10-16T15:46:00.007+08:00

When you are a beginner, novice and "lost" in market, you actively seeking for economic and technical analysis news, commentary by pseudo-gurus, well-known analysts, and managers. The first thing you do when you get hold of the newspaper is to glance through the general news but stop longer to read the business section! You are bombarded and flooded with economic forecasts for forex, gold, crude oil, weather report and global market performances. You go through internet to scout for the most favorable sites... and the list goes on. You may not like to admit but the truth is IF you display the above mentioned behavior you belong to the BEGINNER, NOVICE and the "LOST" ones!

The "Pro" does not seek information actively. The "Pro" scan the news and anticipate how people will react. Prepare the "hunting" strategy. IF the plan turns out as expected, the plan will be implemented. IF there is unexpected change of event the emergency strategy is automatically launched.

To upgrade to the "Pro" level is not difficult. In fact it is simple. But beware IT IS NOT EASY. Simple does not equate to easy. Simple means you do not need complicated or sophisticated "surgery" to transform. IT means revolutionary change to mental calmness, maturity, strategy and ability to feel the turf, ground or market pulse.

My first attempt to buy share was a Fortune 500 company I was employed after I graduated with my MBA in 1989. The rest is history. Many of you are still running around in diapers when I first got my feet wet in stocks. This babies with diapers has grown to adults with diapers. It is interesting to see how this adults diapered babies shouting and claiming the guru status. Oh, you are deprived of attention when you were growing up!

^^^ @ ~ @ ^^^

Transformation is a self-educating process. It requires, patience, dedication, passion, thirst for more knowledge and wisdom. What I thought my MBA from an Ivy U was the ultimate end of my search was actually the beginning of my long journey to seek the truth. The journey was long,dark and freezing cold like I was walking alone through the one foot snow in a cold dark winter after class in campus back to my apartment residence in college town.

The search has ended long ago and I am now enjoying the sunshine at the other side! My first exposure to commodity market was CPO in 1985 after completing my bachelors degree. I saw CPO from RM600 goes to RM1200 before landing at RM700. My second memorable even was to see DJIA from 2700 falls to 1700 within a month in 1987. I recall the faces of my classmates who are finance inclined dumbfounded in class and they see their investments evaporated! Finance didn't explain why and how the recovery happened on CPO and DJIA. Finance did not take into consideration of human behavior in determining prices. We were only taught the "mathematics" of finance. Yes, finance becomes another maths class! Yes, you keep counting the apples and seeds. Finally and eventually, I manage to sit down but now under an apple tree like Newton, began to ponder many question about market and its movements..... The rest is also history.

^^^^ @ @ ^^^^

If you know that kayak up stream is a tremendous challenge, kayak downstream is a no brainer, do what is a no brainer that requires minimal effort and resources.

Chartamental - Introduction

2011-10-13T18:45:00.003+08:00

Chartamental analysis is research of market dynamics that is done mainly with the help of charts and sole purpose of forecasting future price development.

Chartamental analysis comprises several approaches to the study of price movement.

This theory considers the following three premises (no volumes, no candles, no clouds):

1. Market movement considers everything

It is important to understand and grasp right analysis. The gist of it is that any factor that influences the price of securities, whether economic, political, or psychological, has already been taken into account and reflected in the price chart. In other words, every price change is accompanied by a change in external factors. The main inference of this premise is the necessity to follow closely the price movements and analyze them. By means of analyzing price charts and multiple other indicators, a technical analyst comes to the point that the market itself shows to her/him the trend it will most likely follow.

This premise is in conflict with funnymental analysis where it focus the study of factors counting the seed in the apples.

2. The prices move with the trend

This assumption is the basis for all methods of technical analysis, as a market that moves in accordance with trends can be analyzed, unlike a chaotic market. Price movement is a result of a trend has two effects. The first one implies that the current trend will most likely continue and will not reverse itself, thus, excluding disorderly chaotic movement of the market. The second one implies that the current trend will go on until the opposite trend sets in.

3. The history repeats (maybe not exactly)

Chartamental analysis studies market dynamics that are closely related to human psychology. Graphical price depict core characteristics of the psychological state of the market. They show the current market prevailing moods, whether bullish or bearish. Since these models worked in the past, I have reasons to believe that they will work in the future, for they are based on human psychology which remains almost unchanged over years.

The story repeats itself — in a slightly different way: the key to understanding the future lies in the studies of the past.

Don't you think that funnymental also studies the PAST historical data to predict the valuation?

Soros warns euro crisis could destroy world financial system

2011-10-12T18:59:00.002+08:00

Business @ AsiaOne (Wed, Oct 12, 2011 AFP)

Billionaire investor George Soros and some 100 former European dignitaries published an open letter. -AFP

BERLIN - Billionaire investor George Soros and some 100 former European dignitaries Wednesday published an open letter warning that the eurozone debt crisis could bring down the global financial system.

"The euro is far from perfect," they wrote in German business daily Handelsblatt. "The current crisis has shown that."

"But as a reaction to that, we need to revise the weaknesses in its make-up rather than allow the crisis to undermine, even destroy, the world's financial system," they added.

The group, calling themselves "concerned Europeans," appealed to governments to establish an institution that can provide liquidity to the whole eurozone, a strengthening of financial market oversight and a revised EU growth strategy.

The letter was signed by top former politicians, such as ex-German finance minister Hans Eichel, former French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner and Pedro Solbes, who was once EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner.

Distinguished economists such as Charles Goodhart from Britain and Peter Bofinger from Germany also added their names to the appeal.

France and Germany have vowed to come up with a wide-ranging solution to the ongoing debt crisis by the end of the month but have kept mum on the details.

The eurozone power-brokers are working on four main issues - pumping more money into European banks; defining the way the European bailout fund should work; supporting the work of international auditors in Greece and toughening the EU's debt rules.

Later Wednesday, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso was poised to issue hotly anticipated proposals on bank recapitalisation, seen as a key step in bolstering their defences against the debt crisis.

(TZ - US DOllars safe haven? Not crash US Dollars? Funnymentalist last 1 years condemn US Dollars. Now sing songs of praises ka????)

KLCI LONG TERM since 1980

2011-10-12T15:13:00.002+08:00

Guess what is going to happen when KLCI break the Moving average? No candles...no volume....no .. no .... no.... no....

^^^ @ @ ^^^

Well, I use only simple chart! No need so complicated. Simple and easy to read. If simple chart you can't understand, do you think complicated chart you can comprehend!!!!

Walk before you Run......Learn to kiss it simple ........stupid

^^^ * * ^^^

Goldman Sachs share price.....

2011-10-11T19:26:00.001+08:00

If share price is an indication of company quality......look at GS share price.
Declining...... do you want to listen to anyone from GS???

^^^ @ @ ^^^

TA = Trend Analysis or Technical Analysis

2011-10-10T14:57:00.006+08:00

DOW Theory aka Grand Father of Trend Analysis (TA) in compliance with evolution morphed into Technical Analysis. The outcome of many genius attempting to crack market code and in searched of Holy Grail developed all sort of "Black Box systems" with all sort of fuzzy logic technology or Artificial technology (once a buzz word) and the list goes on...... The actual motive is commercializing ideas since there is always demand for product when it involve making money the fast and easy way. Right! This is how a good decent DOW theory become bastardized and gang raped by clever people exploiting the monetary opportunity!

The essence of DOW THEORY did not imply sell and buy at every corners. It evolve understanding TRENDS, the different types of trends and how they relate or interact with each other. Charles Dow never gives you the clue or key to generate buy - sell signals!. Charles Dow wanted you RIDE or SWIM with the trend!

The whole Trend Analysis by Dow is HIJACKED by modern days robbers. Now when the prediction by BLACK BOXes failed to materialize, it become the jokes of the town. Directly creating an extremely bad name to Trend Chart Analysis which I call chartamental!!!!!

^^^ WWW ^^^

I don't know how did Dow Theory become the Grand Father of Technical Analysis and who was the first smart ass that coined this term. If Charles Dow is alive, I do not know if he is willing to be associated with technical analysis. Afterall Dow talks about trend analysis and not technical analysis!!!!!

^^^ @@ ^^^

How well you perform on F-1 rally will depends on the driver and the car! How good you drive through the Sahara Desert rally will depend on the driver and the car also. Just make sure you reach the finishing line!!!

CREDITORS AND BANKERS own the company

2011-10-10T09:18:00.004+08:00

When buy stocks you must remember to HOPE FOR THE BEST and PREPARE for the WORST. Do not be mislead to believe stocks are risk free or there is always capital gains. Capital gains come a string attached called capital loss. You can apply the best academic theoretical finance from warren buffeted or his guru, bottom line is you must remember despite being a shareholder you do not own the company. Do not start thinking and behaving as if you OWN the company. CREDITORS AND BANKERS own the company. They get paid first before you!!!!! Do you think you get paid before creditors and bankers.

So what is stock? Stocks that you buy is no different from warrant or any other derivatives that you own! Except that it has no expiration and conversion rate attached!!!! Stocks expire when it goes kaput! So there is an expiration date attached to it!!!

Stocks is another great marketing strategy by corporations to borrow money from public instead of bankers or creditors!!!!!!

Whatever mental distortion you have, get it cleanse and straightened out.

Stocks Prices = Consumer Goods Prices?

2011-10-10T08:28:00.004+08:00

As I reflect my days as a marketer doing analysis and strategic planning during FMCG back in the 80s, compared to stocks pricing in the exchange, there are similarities.

We have human (consumer) making both rational and irrational decision depending on "Utility Benefits". Peculiar reaction develops depending on "Expectation" or "Accepted Practice". In buying stocks, the expected utility benefit is to sell higher. As it goes higher the sell target does change depending on individual. Some do not change. In the case when one buys a car, rarely does one expect to sell at a higher price. Almost all the time it is accepted that the selling price will never be higher than buying price.

If academic theoretical finance can solve and explain the above behavior every time it surface, finance has become "exact science" where everything is accountable and explainable. Today and for many decades academic theoretical finance is still a imperfect theory and still an "art" (never exact science). Despite many portraying and claiming finance is sort of exact or perfect science.

Why do you think there is always sales promotion regularly on FMCG like stocks market prices?

"Anyone can count the seeds in an apple, but no one can count the apples in a seed."

2011-10-09T13:30:00.007+08:00

My first encounter with THEORETICAL ACADEMIC Finance was in 1987 when I flew over to pursue my graduate business school. Both Prof. Jerome Haas (Jerry E. Haas) and Prof. Harold Bierman Jr. were my Finance lecturer. During this period I was exposed to Behavioral Decision Theory (BDT when it was still at infancy) with Prof. Dick Thaler (Richard Thaler) as my lecturer.

It is easier to understand CLASSICAL ACADEMIC FINANCE because it is tangible (calculated using formula). It is harder to understand BDT because we are dealing with something that is BEHAVIORAL in nature. It was during my elective CONSUMER BEHAVIOR and DECISION MAKING subject that open my eyes to the socio-pscho-economic nature of human acting either rationally or irrationally when reacting to stimuli.

Finance is THEORY. When we THINK we have determined the INTRINSIC VALUE of a stock, we soon discover this value differs among different people who used different technique. There is non universal standard technique or "THE" technique. What is more alarming and interesting is PRICE of STOCKS do not trade at intrinsic value? How does the theoretical academic finance explains the anomalies of actual price is either trading ABOVE or BELOW the intrinsic value? I have not read any published paper and research satisfactorily explaining such discrepencies. Conveniently, such gaps is sweep under the carpet or ignored with addressing them. I keep my update my finance knowledge by reading finance research paper published constantly. If you don't upgrade....you will be left behind with old obsolete knowledge!!!!

Do you sell when the actual price is above Intrinsic value? When do you sell? How do you sell? Do you buy when actual price is below Intrinsic value? When do you buy? How do you buy? This is no longer theoretical finance. This is ,,,,,,,tactical. So there is no such thing as pure finance...it is a hybrid.

The question that crop up next is if there is no way classical academic finance is able to determine stock price, what are funnymental ANALysts evaluating? Just follow blindly what the textbooks say!!!! ^^^^ WWW ^^^^

"Anyone can count the seeds in an apple, but no one can count the apples in a seed."

If one can't describe and explain this discrepancy in a tangible manner either the formula is WRONG or it must be due to intangible reasons! Since there is no other better formula, we assume the formula is correct. Otherwise this will put many Finance Professors and funnymentalysts into a tailspin. Ok, we now say it is the INTANGIBLE factor that cause the difference. How do you measure or account for the intangible factor?

FINANCE or FINANCIAL market is NEVER exact science. It is nothing but best estimate. Remember it is useless to try and pin point the weakness of the academic theoretical finance. It is better to let them as it is. We just pursue our own path.

I have lived both sides of the game, I know which is suitable and profitable to me. Use Academic Theoretical Finance as the benchmark. Do not insist the value on market price. Draw on the strength of trend trading with chartamental. You will be a star.

If market is random, how did I outperformed market averages year after year. When this process is consistently beating the market, it is no longer random! It is predictable

GOLD consolidation....what is next?

2011-10-08T19:44:00.006+08:00

No candles sticks, no light...used wrongly candles will burn your fingers....hand....house!!!.

No Bollinger band.... don't know how to trade with BB,,,, makes my chart so confusing and contaminate my chart with too many lines. I am suffice with one Moving average and my own band to tell me where it is going.

Now I got a clean and neat chart....If you need too many tools on your chart.... you got a real big problem!

As a firm believer volume is immaterial to my analysis, I keep to my words... no volume on my chart. Candles if I put back is only for COSMETIC purpose. No functional intent.

I have used this chart and indicators for a LONG LONG LONG TIME.....and the results is yet to be replicated by Funnymental practitioners.... ^ W ^

2011-10-08T19:44:00.001+08:00

How much do you know?

2011-10-08T11:14:00.002+08:00

We often find people attend a few classes, read a few books and next claimed to be trained by so and so and graduated with this n that certificate or diploma. The next thing you know, these people start to offer "services". This is modern day business scheme.

Well if you are going to subscribe or engage the services of these people check their credentials. Ask them for their actual trades. Check their actual trades for 5-10 years. Check when their make losses. Was it Up or DOWN or SIDEWAY market. Check if this losses repeat. Check if this problem is rectified.

Do not be blinded by the promises of great fortune. If your much worshiped sifu has fixed the problematic areas, it is likely this person has a self-evaluation system and monitoring. If this sifu claimed to commit no mistakes,....you will become the mistake! IF the teacher cannot provide money back guarantee......for teaching you....well, you are his lunch!

Only a fool knows everything. A wise man knows how little he knows.

Good luck......

FKLCI 60m and EOD chart

2011-10-08T11:10:00.002+08:00

Where market going after ooomphless budget? Can FKLCI defy gravity?

Is this a budget rally or following regional markets?

2011-10-06T09:36:00.004+08:00

The wonder of Malaysia market is we know Govt will intervene market with public funds either via EPF or other entities. When RM falls along with market battering, it is local funds supporting and buying. IF you want to profit from KLSE, it is the easiest market to play. Yes, we know this sort of activities if public secret. You should be bullish when market is falling. Simply because the entities will come to blow the bubble.

The task is to know when to enter and ride it up. Now ask novice TA and fundamentalist to come and play in a market like this, they will be butchered. You do not need to go to school to learn to play in a market like this. You do not need to go attend TA classes to learn to trade in a market like this. ALL YOU NEED IS COMMON SENSE. When fear embold you, BUY.

Now if you get people who "thinks" they know and haven't season the iron like a blacksmith want to teach you TA, I don't know what will be your outcome. It is better you go and spend money buy some books from MPH to read and test out. No need to waste time go to such classes.

Steve Jobs, thank you. Dead but not forgotten. You are a genius. A real marketer, visionary, someone who understands market and delivers what the market wants.

Every trader should try to understand what Steve does - UNDERSTAND MARKET and DELIVERS WHAT THE MARKET WANTS. Do you understand the market? Do you deliver and follow what the market wants? Do you deliver what you want and impose on them on market? Which fails almost ALL the time?

WISDOM QUOTE OF THE DAY - FOOLS

2011-10-05T13:57:00.002+08:00

The mistakes of the fool are known to the world, but not to himself. The mistakes of the wise man are known to himself, but not to the world - Charles Caleb Colton

A fool despises good counsel, but a wise man takes it to heart - Confucius

Before God we are equally wise and equally foolish - Albert Einstein

The fool wanders, a wise man travels -Thomas Fuller

One fool can ask more questions in a minute than twelve wise men can answer in an hour -Nikolai Lenin

Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools talk because they have to say something - Plato

Learning makes the wise wiser and the fool more foolish -John Ray

The fool thinks himself to be wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool
-William Shakespeare

Only a fool knows everything. A wise man knows how little he knows - Unknown

Fools give you reasons, wise men never try -Oscar Hammerstein II

A fool flatters himself, a wise man flatters the fool -Edward G. Bulwer-Lytton

Wise men learn by other men's mistakes, fools by their own -H. G. Bohn

A wise person does at once, what a fool does at last. Both do the same thing; only at different times -John Dalberg Acton

Even a fool may be wise after the event – Homer

What if a fool did not get wiser after the event – TZ

Life is simple

2011-10-04T11:37:00.006+08:00

I do not have stocks to recommended daily. I am not in the business of recommending stocks. Even when I was a "remisier" (that was ages ago)I failed to recommend stocks. I purposely failed this task!!! All I know is I trail and follow a handful of stocks I know them intimately!!! (#&$^%*)#W_)@%!$ When clients ask my opinions, I open up the charts and let them see if they understand or like the charts. I have no opinions and views on something I do not know!!!!

As a trader who only fight in the field I am familiar, I choose when and how to fight. I trade AUD-MYR, AUD-SGD, SGD-USD, SGD-AUD, Wheat(CBOT), CORN, FKLCI, SIMSCI, SPI200. Stocks? I only trade a handful in KLSE and SES. My favorites are Gamuda-WD, MRCB, NOL, KEPPLAND, GENTING SG and HPTrust.

Isn't life simple with just a handful of things to follow instead of running all over different place? All I need to do is to time my entries. Exit when I got enough profits. Is it that difficult to follow? Do you have the discipline to follow? Do you have the discipline to act!!!! Do you have the guts or balls of steel to act? If you keep on procastinating, that tells you own underlying mental and behavior. IT is called you are a coward who dare not face the monster inside you!!!!! What happens during this period, is you will blame the market, intervention and many other big names you can think of!

Look no one is going to put money on the table or into your bank account! Be realistic! You have to put money into your bank account or take money from the table! Understand! How stupid can one be?? ^^^ *** ^^^

Can you weather volatility? Do you a technique or tactical strategy to emerge with prizes from the opportunities? Do you know how to adjust, attack, retreat, decrease. increase positions as needed adjusting to risk rewards along with trends?

What good is your funnymental and TA analysis if you don't have the above! I learn from experience if I am wrong. I move with confidence ahead with experience as my weapon and shield.

Who say we can agrees all the time?

2011-10-04T09:05:00.005+08:00

NEW YORK (AP) -- The smart money is split on Bank of America.

Big investors George Soros and John Paulson are selling shares of the nation's largest bank. But Bruce Berkowitz, Thomas Brown and other fund managers find the stock so attractive that they are buying up boatloads. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett also invested $5 billion in the bank.

So, who's right?

Read more below ......

http://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/smart-money-split-bank-america-200752635.html

We live in a democratic world. We given our rights to exercise our views. It comes with a PRICE and PRIZE. IF you think HEDGE funds or famous branded "investors" (if we can agree the definition, I call them speculator) can agree all the time, you are wrong. There will always be different opinion and view. Market will decide who is correct now,,, later in the future.

I am not going to agree just because so and so said this or that. I will analyze and make my own judgment. I believe in my own analysis and strategy. I have lived and traded the exchanges for 20 decades.

I may not be perfect....but I know I am close to perfect!!!!! I know I don't have to be perfect to make money. I know I don't need too much to make money. I know what I need to know and ignore what I don't need to know. I know that knowing too much is more harmful. I know knowing too little is also dangerous. I know how to balance what I need to know and how much I need to know. Most importantly I know when and how to act!!!! I know talk is cheap. Not only cheap, I know no capital is needed when you talk. I know act is not cheap, it need capital!!!

I know I am responsible to grow and multiply my accounts. I know ........... I know ......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation

Investment vs. speculation

Identifying speculation can be best done by distinguishing it from investment. According to Ben Graham in Intelligent Investor, the prototypical defensive investor is "...one interested chiefly in safety plus freedom from bother." He admits, however, that "...some speculation is necessary and unavoidable, for in many common-stock situations, there are substantial possibilities of both profit and loss, and the risks therein must be assumed by someone." Many long-term investors, even those who buy and hold for decades, may be classified as speculators, excepting only the rare few who are primarily motivated by income or safety of principal and not eventually selling at a profit.

Speculating is the assumption of risk in anticipation of gain but recognizing a higher than average possibility of loss. The term speculation implies that a business or investment risk can be analyzed and measured, and its distinction from the term Investment is one of degree of risk. It differs from gambling, which is based on random outcomes.[4] There is nothing in the act of speculating or investing that suggests holding times have anything to do with the difference in the degree of risk separating speculation from investing.

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ******* ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^^

Singapore Trades Sept details - Final posting

2011-10-03T18:45:00.002+08:00

A friend drop me a line. What I have done is sufficient to make blow on Funnymental and fake guru especially those self-bestowed title among those TA folks.

Today I will request to withdraw funds from my accounts to spend. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

If you ever listen and doubt chartamental, remember someone out there has got the right formula. You see how I increase my numbers months after months when people are bleeding and blood splashed all over.

If I were to post my commodities and forex trades, it will be so obscene and make those half past six so embarassing.

Before I get another reminder to remain low.... I say this way.... when you think you know all ... go round condeming others ^^^^^^^^^^^..... you are just a hound dog ^^^^^^^^.... dog does not rank high up in the hierachy kingdom...

ie....you are not even there.... probably got lost somewhere

^^^^^^^^

AMFutrures updated,

2011-10-03T09:23:00.002+08:00

^^^^ ^^^^^
( ) ( )

Sept performance update .... AMFutures not in yet. I will post later.

2011-10-03T09:08:00.003+08:00

Aiyo, so obscene my performance. Now I challenge Funnymental guru come and play play in this market. See if you repeat my performance month on month.

Aiya, funnymental mental block ka??? ^ ^ ^ ^

Just lock in my SG MSCI...another SGD1400 in the pocket over night! What is that? MSCI STIndex? I dono rrr how to do funnymental valuation. cos my finance prof didn't teach me long ago. Anyway chartamental indicate buy, I buy ...sell...I sell...

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^

Before you start to poke and make fun on chartamental.... think 10000x ....
You can bully the novice, but never make fun of chartamental coz you will meet your waterloo...loo loooo

Market timing – Facts or Myths

2011-10-02T14:27:00.002+08:00

I let my actual trades be the evidence. You will be the judge.

Strategize your trading tactics, forecasting, common sense and sharpen market skills stay ahead of the crowd. Understand market psychology and how to remain objective while living with the mob.

Identifying useful chart facts before considering theories

Anticipating moves by understanding consistency, commonality and dynamics

Identify, survive and exploit failed breakouts.

Study the logic of behavioral technical analysis and apply it to the markets.

Examines crowd psychology in a number of contexts, price action condition expectations and behavior so that they become self-fulfilling.

Learn to recognize and monitor each trend’s unique consistency characteristics, select appropriate trend-running tactics, including where to place stops.

Focus entirely on chart facts. Learn to identify objectively, rather than abstract or theoretical aspects of analysis. Over 90 percent of what we need to know, in terms of price actions are visible on the chart itself.

Is it trending or ranging? If trending, is it consistent or inconsistent? This tells us a great deal about the supply/demand imbalance producing the trend. If a trend appears consistent, what are those consistency characteristics? The more the trend has progressed, the easier it is to identify each trend’s individual characteristics, which is when we need to be aware of them. They don’t tell us how far it will go – nothing does – but a consistent trend is still in motion.

And crucially, any loss of consistency is a warning that the trend could be tiring. If you have identified a trend’s consistency characteristics, you will recognize when it is changing, because it can’t top out or bottom out without losing those characteristics.

These trend-ending characteristics are a key to entry and exit points for investors and traders. Three primary trend endings, present at every peak or trough, whether short, medium or long term.

Charts are collective action of people Behavioral Analysis

Chart formations are people patterns, created by everyone out there who is buying and selling. People in a crowd soon lose their individuality and conform to their environment, which causes them to move in a more predictable pattern.

Financial market analysis is behavioral science. The disciplines of conventional technical analysis are essential to timing, which is key determinant of performance. However, successful chart forecasting is not just a matter of recognizing similarities with past cycles that will, hopefully, repeat themselves.

Consecutive cycles are almost always different if only because people usually do next time what they can see with hindsight they should have done the last time. That changes the nature of price swings and alters the cycle. (Incidentally, a vulnerability of computer trading systems is that they are programmed to perform in the last cycle.)

Chart patterns are most likely to have predictive value when the analyst’s conclusions are soundly based in crowd psychology. The approach combines factual (rather than theoretical) aspects of conventional chart interpretation with an understanding of investor psychology.

Can one benefit financially from charts if you do not understand the theory behind charts?

Are you sure you are taught the correct and proper chart “foundation”?

If you have started on the wrong tangent thinking it is the right, you will make so many consistent mistakes that funnymental folks will ridicule chartamental. This is really embarrassing to chartamental discipline.

Do not focus on the multi-buy-sell signals. There are so many signals within a trend moving in one direction that you end up focus the trees and lost the forest. Focus on major trend reversal setup where risk-rewards are favorable to you.

A baseball player does not hit at all the pitch. When there is a home-run pitch, go and strike it home!!! Someone who wants to sell the trading software signals will never focus on the home run! He or she wants you to keep batting at the pitch! Eventually you will loose your power and die of exhaustion!!!!

Wolves come behaving and dressed like sheeps. If it doesn’t serve your interest and objective, ignore them!

(Well, I miss the boat on Gamuda-WD, got peanuts instead of steak! What the heck, funnymental will say don't buy. It is trading at PREMIUM versus underlying! Funnymental can sit and watch. I go and swim with sharks!)

Bull run KLSE???

2011-09-30T09:20:00.002+08:00

Landed in cool clear clean air Melbourne last nite. First time I am flying the latest MAS A330 with new better ergonomic structured seats. These seats reminds me of the days I used to fly around in PIA where the headrests are lower fit suitably "asians". The older MAS seats have higher headrests which are uncomfortable.

Let me look at markets later after I recover from the flight...... tired and sleeepy!!!!

Obscene making money in a market like this?

2011-09-28T11:34:00.002+08:00

Ya, you have a faithful funnymental dog barking at others. Well, until you meet your waterloo, you never know how deep the water is. RIGHT?

Talk is cheap. When you put your money on the table it is no longer cheap.

I use CHARTAMENTAL...... CHART and MENTAL.

Now the problem is we get many half past six novice so-called chartist giving this discipline a really bad name.

If you want to call market, for god sake do your home work! Don't make this chartamental discipline look like voodoo.

NOT PROMOTING SOFTWARE or SERVICES

2011-09-28T11:20:00.003+08:00

I am not selling anything and not promoting anything. I am telling you that you owe it to yourself to achieve greater heights.

Go and gain knowledge. Go and gain wisdom. Go and get smarter.

Anyway. Every 2-3 months I will withdraw my profits. Go holidays. Nothing less than 50% maybe 100%.

Funnymental ....oh funnymental. Can you repeat my performance ka in a market like this.

Come and play .... let us if you can beat my record.

When Sept month close let us see if I am making another 100% or 50% return.

HEHEHEHEEH

Do you people to recommend and tell you what to buy?

2011-09-28T11:01:00.002+08:00

I only know my favorite regular stocks INTIMATELY. It is time to buy,,,,BUY I WILL. No need listen to others tell you what to do. Logical isn't it?

Do your own homework. Be independent. Be a dependent? You are an addict!

Why ...why...so many opportunities

2011-09-28T09:33:00.004+08:00

Ya,I went short 3 FKLCI after lunch yesterday. Ooops, I just took profit after carry overnite. So-so performance didn't sell at peak and exit and today low. Nvm, bag in avg SELL 3 x 1363, exit at LONG 3 x 1348.

Let me see how many point ,,,,, hmmmm ,,,,, 15 points overnite. Sigh. Not 51 points!

To the fallen heroes, heroine, and funnymental....welcome to CHARTAMENTAL.

Time to rest. Now do homework. Look for bargains in stocks.

Ahhh... I should continue to read books. Or maybe I should just complete the Chartamental technique manual.... or maybe I should go over to FOREX and go zooom zoom zoom there.

Taking profit.... FOR ME

2011-09-27T09:29:00.003+08:00

I am taking profits on my SHORTS SGD-USD pair from 2 days ago entry.....2 full contracts.

Taking profits of my FKLCI 7 contracts.

Took Gamuda-wd kopi-o positions off. I was hoping it falls more. What the heck it want to come up. 3c over-nite not too bad. (5% gain)

Should I reverse and turn shorts on FKLCI????

Do the trade correctly. Let profits take care of it self. I will check my monthly end balance in my accounts.

Trade well, Trade shrewd, Trade confidently. Be a MAN. If you trade well, I guarantee you will be rewarded handsomely like a MAN. Focus on your trade. No need to worry about money.

What did I say and warned earlier?

2011-09-26T22:56:00.004+08:00

http://klsetrend.blogspot.com/2011/08/past-behavior-manifestation.html

http://klsetrend.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-set-up-for-fall.html

http://klsetrend.blogspot.com/2011/08/is-market-seriously-thinking-about.html

and the list goes on till June.

Now I am happily catching falling parangs (machetes). Knives are just too mild to describe.

Now we will see who are kids, boys and men. I was shorting the market earlier. Shorting CORN, WHEAT, SIMSCI, FKLCI. Today I clear out my shorts positions and slowly reversing my positions to LONGS. Buying in stages every 30 points down. The lowest FKLCI I enter LONG is Oct 1308!! My average is within 1330+. Not too bad and not too good. Acceptable. Follow chartamental technique.

Today, I have switch to buying stocks. I sold out my Gamuda-WD earlier in August around 1.18-1.15 range before it climbs to 1.22. Today I am collecting 50% of my earlier positions at 0.71c!!!! What a bargain! I did not do this on Fundamental. I use chartamental. I will continue to buy every 10c down until it stop falling. That is when I will fully load up this Gamuda-WD.

Aiyah! Be a MAN, don't be boys. In the market there are many boys behaving like men. Some aspire to be man. Some end up castrated.

Funnymental say sell, Chartamental say buy! So how? Buy la, what the heck. I am so happy buying along the way down. This is 1Malaysia fire sale. Lelong time. Auctions time.

I have waited many months for opportunities like this. IF 20 years of experience is worth the salt, it is time to BUY. When people are bleeding and blood is all over, it is time to bargain hunting.

BTW, I got an extremely deep pockets and safe deposits. Only man got deep pocket. Boys and kids only got pennies.

Enjoy the bargain hunting.

Imagine Gamuda going bankrupt? Can bankrupt? Imagine Gamuda-WD keep dropping, how do you think the rest of the stocks will perform? Maybe you will see my name appear as a major shareholder of Gamuda-WD???? Maybe...maybe ...maybe.

IF ....IF.....IF,,,,,

2011-09-25T11:26:00.002+08:00

If you subscribe to the believe that trend moves in stages,

If you believe both linear and non-linear phase exist where price trend either agrees or disagree with estimated valuation and oscillates above or below valuation,

If you believe news report is not to make you rich with the information released to the media,

If you believe you should take charge of your destiny and not these streaming news reports,

If you believe that your objective and media is different,

If you believe you should not be distracted by many small signals and noises,

If you believe you should focus on major reversal,

If you believe you do not need rocket science to navigate,

If you believe emotions controls price direction,

If you believe winning the game is not only about how much information you know,

If you believe managing mental and emotion is key to emerge as one of the many winners,

If you believe life science principles are applicable to financial markets,

If you believe you can consistently outperform market averages,

If you believe you should unlearn before you can learn,

If you believe knowing too much is harmful,

Only If You Believe...............

Money and Opportunities

2011-09-22T13:57:00.001+08:00

WE ARE IN GAME OF POSSIBLITIES AND PROBABILITIES. THE GAME OF GOOD BET or EDUCATED GUESS!

Chart is a tool of factual record and its interpretation and use depends on the experience judgment of the user.

I am a firm believer that market makes it own complex valuation and charts reflect this continually changing appraisal. Chart is a MAP of the conditions that exist in the market.

It is impossible to make a set of rules to be used as formula to ensure absolute gain. The market is not that easy. Each participant has his own objectives and philosophy.

Easy to say and harder to do, the whole science or art of analyzing price trend depends on individual skill, experience and perception of the investor or how well he will do. It depends on the conviction and courage to follow through and carry out with determination the decision.

If there is one thing that I learn in my journey, do not presume that you know everything. It is better you assume knowing nothing! It you can assume you know nothing, you have brought yourself down to the lowest level – HUMBLE and HUMILITY. Only than your eyes and minds can see!

You are not MARRIED to an opinion. In fact we should not form an opinion with supporting data to reinforce. This only makes us RIGID and BIAS.

I do not need to find facts to support the rationale for UP or DOWN. ALL I know is if UP is the easiest thing to do with least effort or resistance, UP it moves and vice-versa.

I am not in the business to finds data or information to support or defend a legal case. I am in the business of managing MONEY and OPPORTUNITIES.

Logical Management

2011-09-22T09:39:00.003+08:00

Before anyone can use any method in business, finance, science or any other discipline and before he can judge properly the usefulness of the method, he should have done the ground theory and the goals to achieve.

To many people, the financial market is a confusing and confused melee where prices move helter-skelter without rhyme. This confusion is to some extent a confusion in their own minds since they do not understand complicated forces and the detail of procedure that actually cause prices to advance or decline.

The degree of success will depend on the ability to extract the relevant facts, weigh them and determine their importance, and arrive at the best decisions possible from the data available.

Sound judgment, good intuition, foresight and wisdom do not come about overnight reading book; attend some lectures, or adopting a formula or method. These invaluable assets are vital processes constitute a whole lifelong process of self-education. It is not easy, but it is the only way.

There is nothing mystical about having your opinions or views and its validity if they are base on false data or inadequate data, obsolete data and the conclusions may not follow validly from the facts of hand.

Most tragedies in financial markets come about through

a)Inadequate or obsolete data information

b)Misinterpretation of the data information

c)Faulty conclusion from the data information

d)Stubborn habit of behavior like rigid PREJUDICES base on poorly conceived EMOTION
Successful financial market exploitation requires a prediction method that looks into the past, checking the present if the conditions are greatly different and making allowances for the differences, and finally making conclusions base on this studies what is most likely to happen in the future.

We must guard against prejudices and attitudes that are so ingrained in us that they may distort our vision and impact our analysis. Ingrained opinions are so deeply a part of our value system that they can be so damaging if they are distorting our perception of the facts. It takes time and experience to revise the old faulty concepts. They are not going to erase themselves or amend themselves just on the strength of intellectual acceptance. The new positive habits must be developed until they become the habitual responses. Attitude can lead to the frame of mind and one need to manage this process carefully.

Revisiting and Rewriting DOW THEORY

2011-09-18T10:35:00.004+08:00

John Magee - "When you enter the stock market you are going into a competitive field in which your evaluations and opinions will be matched up against some of the sharpest and toughest minds in the business. You are in a highly specialized industry where there are many different sectors, all of which are under intense study by men whose economic survival depends upon their best judgment".

Richard McDermott - "Market represents a most democratic and representative criterion of stock value. That the action of a stock price in a free, competitive market reflects all that is known, believed, surmised, hoped or feared about the stock, and therefore, that it synthesizes the attitudes and opinions of all. That the price of the stock is the result of buying and selling forces and represents the "true value" at any given moment".

(TZ - "democratic" - When people go to vote, sometime votes are cast not out of LOGIC but ILLOGICAL fear. IT is no different when human are subject to decision. Emotion controls. One can complain and bitch about the ruling Govt. But when come to voting, they are returned to power again! The behavior repeats in market.)

To try understanding what each and everyone is doing and rationale for acting likewise in the market is an ACADEMIC intellectual exercise. To be able to determine which force is driving the market and exploit opportunities with this information is a BUSINESS exercise.

Market is a field where one's Righteous principles is challenged and compromised. It is about your ability to yield and follow market forces to capitalize on the opportunities. When our RATIONAL LOGIC is challenged, we have a choice to make. EITHER you forget this LOGIC righteous principle(COMPROMISE?)and join the flow and contradict or compromise your "principles" or FOLLOW your LOGIC, exit and wait for the next bus!

The biggest advantage being trained in experimental research discipline is my ability to use DEDUCTIVE THEORY. One must be able to identify and isolate variable and non-variable elements. My rule is to dump the variable elements. Variable elements DO NOT produce consistent repeatable outcomes. NON-variable elements will produce consistent repeatable outcomes.

The biggest IMPERFECTION in DOW THEORY is VOLUME. This should be deleted from the Theory. Volume is a variable element that is proven prices do rise and continue to rise with low volume. The Theory emphasis is RISE must be confirmed with VOLUME increment. Volume should not be used as YARDSTICK. It should be eliminated. VOLUME represents IRRATIONALITY.

HOW MANY OF YOU CAN TRANSFER YOUR EDUCATION TECHNOLOGY TO THE FINANCIAL MARKET?

Jakarta prepares stimulus package

2011-09-17T00:15:00.002+08:00

Published September 16, 2011

(JAKARTA) The Indonesian government is preparing a stimulus package that it may implement in the first half of 2012 should the global economy worsen and hurt growth in South-east Asia's largest economy, the government said yesterday.

'The stimulus will be a combination of policy and fresh money' to boost consumption and investment, Bambang Brodjonegoro, head of fiscal policy at the Ministry of Finance, said after the ministry and the central bank met lawmakers.

The central bank has signalled that it may cut interest rates, and stepped in to halt losses in the rupiah on Wednesday after it fell as much as 2.6 per cent.

Fiscal stimulus and monetary policy will help the economy reach 6.7 per cent growth next year, Bank Indonesia deputy governor Hartadi Sarwono said yesterday. -- Bloomberg

(TZ - now we heard so much about Indonesia boom and the next jewel of Asia. Something does not tally. Why bother to boost and stimulate unless the story is unreliable? More like over hype! Is it BOOM and BUST?) IF Fund Managers withdraw don't even dream of them flocking to Malaysia.)

AFTER 20 YEARS

2011-09-13T13:55:00.002+08:00

Exit my short EURO positions versus USD which I held for sometime. I was trading the volatility until my momentum indicator pointing to a new trend emerging. I will now slowly sell into EURO positions at predetermined levels. Adjust and trail higher if the Velocity abnormally gets a booster push. When the trend turns according to my expectation, it is time double or triple up my stakes. I am just going to trail the market like a Hunter tracking the prey.

I am not going to waste my time listening to news trying to explain why USD goes up and EURO dips AFTER it happens. Subsequently another story explaining why the USD drops AFTER it dived!. I am just going to IGNORE all this coffee-shop talk and gossip unless someone can GUARANTEE me that this piece of information will definitely tells me what the price going to be NEXT immediate days. If you can't tell me what price is going to be tomorrow, don't even bother to try and tell me what it is going to be next week! Logical?

The act of actively pursuing information and the need to get daily doses of market report or news is no different from ADDICTION. We all know that if you are injected with adulterated heroin, you will die!

20 years of active trading is long enough. 20 years of reading markets is long enough. 20 years of observing how adults behave like kids in markets is long enough. 20 years of noticing how far my ex-colleagues in the broking industry remain status- quo and I move ahead is long enough. 20 years of seeing people who continue to make the same mistakes is long enough. 20 years of looking at human failure to anticipate and act before shit hits the fan is long enough.

AFTER 20 YEARS HUMAN BEHAVIOR REMAINS PREDICTABLY SAME (irrespective of education level and color)!

News and Timing

2011-09-06T14:57:00.003+08:00

Nobody's perfect. Not even the "bond king" Bill Gross. The Pimco co-founder and manager of the $244 billion Total Return Fund tells the Financial Times betting against U.S. Treasuries was a mistake. Gross tells the FT he erred by being too optimistic on the U.S. economy. Gross has been proven wrong and his fund has suffered. Gross still thinks his thesis holds true in the long-term.

Hedge fund billionaire John Paulson famed for shorting the housing market in 2008, netted him billions, Paulson then went long financials near the lows in 2009 and made more billions as stocks rocketed off the bottom. This year, Paulson has been hammered because he held onto those bank stocks too long and made other poor investments including Chinese timber company Sino-Forest, rocked by an accounting scandal.

Timing is everything when it comes to investing. You can be right about the premise and wrong about the investment at the same time. This shows investing is not easy and the greatest investors get it wrong sometimes. The above are “Kings” that were humbled. I believe that they were using the same techniques or models that were successful initially. Maybe the model failed to deliver the expected results when market is peaking.

This brings me back to 1992-1994 KLSE episodes. Rumors and news were churning from the mills day and nights about “Privatization project”, “China projects” and many more projects that propel prices to the sky. Even the disastrous Bakun project makes stocks glitter like diamonds. Try the same news in 1998 or 2008 crisis, the impact will be muted or worthless. How we use news or information and data will ultimately decide either we emerge as winners or losers. Which part of the market or trend cycle when the news is disseminated will decide price get a booster or dummy effect.

Sometime we got lucky when we buy before price peaked in up trend. We believe we found new “skill”. Sometime we got unlucky buying off the peak and price and price dived before rebounding somewhere between entry price and lowest point. A relieve it didn’t dropped lower because we are comforted that our losses is reduced! This actually happened to me in 1992-1994.

The most effectiveness way to boost price is between the last 25% of the trend to the peak when euphoria is peaking. Fear of missing the boat and Greed encouraging more purchase. It is at this irrational state and stage that manipulator distribute holdings. It is good to confirm and check with “radar” when we get or hear the news. Assess if this information will be a booster or dampener to price.

SHOULD versus REALITY

2011-09-05T16:30:00.001+08:00

We believe after taking information, news, report, data or evidence into consideration and LOGICALLY analyzing before making a conclusive OPINION. I have many reasons to believe our opinion is well supported. The reason I call this OPINION because we do not decide market outcome in an emotionally charged environment. This is what I call it a CHOICE and OUTCOME situation.

We can make most LOGICAL and REASONABLE choice but the OUTCOME can be unfavorable to us. In a different situation, we can make ILLOGICAL and UNREASONABLE choice but a favorable is the reward. The challenge is not about making logical and reasonable choice. The challenge is about managing unexpected outcome after conducting logical and reasonable analysis. We find it challenging because our brain is CONDITIONED to react, think, rationalize and decide in a certain process.

WHEN the OUTCOME or VERDICT is delivered, we have to accept it irrespective whether it agrees or disagrees with our opinion. When the outcome agrees with our opinion, our ego gets inflated bigger than the HOT air balloon. When the outcome disagrees with our opinion, we find it hard to swallow.

Market moves in cycle. Bullish news in UP cycle propel price higher. Bearish news in DOWN cycle depress price lower. Bullish news at the PEAK will fail to rocket price to the moon. It is more likely to be succeeded by down swing. On the contrary bearish news at the BOTTOM will not bring price to the deepest Ocean, instead price can start to spring up. Sometime I wonder news and information are deliberately released to manipulate.

Our ability to understand where the current price is located within a cycle will help us determine or assess the risk-reward. If we believe price has not peaked, positive news can aid in expediting the process. The opposite holds true.
Rather than agonizing which direction price should moved, I have “released” and “liberated” my anxiety. I try my best to follow what market wants to do. Imposing my opinion on Mr. Market is FUTILE. Accept Mr. Market outcome.

In Bible, Book of Ecclesiastes describes the cycles. Cycles repeats! There is nothing new under the sun!

Analytical Strategist (Work hard and smart)

2011-09-02T15:53:00.000+08:00

We must be able to distinguish the roles of analyst and strategist.

Analyst (WORK HARD) – HYPOTHESIS of what it should be with the information.

Analyst role is to create FEAR and cultivate followers.

Strategist (WORK SMART) – What is my plan if the hypothesis turns out to be true and what is my strategy if the hypothesis is flaw.

Strategist responsibility is to navigate safely.

Analytical Strategist (Work Hard and Smart)

To work hard is one thing. To work smart is a different thing. To work hard and smart is a separate thing. Starting as a rookie moving up across different industries both financial and non-financial, I can only conclude that market will auto-adjust when things move to extreme.

The question is are we savvy and equipped to navigate through rough sea if indeed it is a real rough sea and not a fake. Sometime we see dark clouds thinking a typhoon or tornado is coming. More likely it is a storm. It is also possible the sky can clear abruptly. We can over-react out of fear. We tend over-react because we don’t have strategy to manage this condition. We become victim and slave to our emotion. We are unable to break out of the self-feeding vicious cycle. This drive markets to unsustainable extreme either UP or DOWN. Human cannot remain in this extreme paradigm forever. When this extreme fades it can be abruptly or gradually.

We have many analysts sitting at both ends of the market. The extreme bulls give you 1001 reasons why the price will rise and we are in high price paradigm. The extreme bears tell you 1001 why price will crash and remain deflated. After setting my eyes on NYSE in 1987, the truth is market will not remain extreme forever. It will oscillate between two extremes.

Bullish analysts will never discussed about strategy if price unexpectedly crash. More likely analysts CONVENIENTLY adopt “forgotten strategy”. Our responsibility is to have strategic plan in place and implement it accordingly. With 24 years tracking global market and 20 years trading actively, I conclude that we dictate our destiny. Analyst does not dictate our destiny.

I believe I have a brain although I never seen it. I also believe we think alike. We have 2 eyes and 2 ears so that we can listen and monitor better. We have ONE mouth to talk less and ONE brain to focus. Let us optimize and use our natural gifted resources wisely.

Reinforcing the truth

2011-08-27T19:20:00.001+08:00

Price register higher level simply because there is someone among the pool of buyers willing to pay higher price. Price will continue to rise until this pool of ever willing higher price is depleted and unwilling to bid higher. On the contrary price drops lower because someone among the pool of sellers decided to sell lower price. Likewise when the last anxious seller has exited the market, price will stabilize and either continues to rise or move side way depending on buyers’ appetite.

There are many reasons for price to move higher and lower. Knowing the reasons and rationale will never guarantee that we can profit from such information. Even if we have the privilege to access tomorrow’s news before it hit the newsstand is not going to guarantee us that we will know how price will move. Price action can either move in direction of our expectation or against our expectation. This is the truth that many do not know or choose not to know.

Why and how does the proliferation of software emitting BUY and SELL signals exist? Human behavior dictates the desire to know when to buy and sell almost every second. This translates into a demand for “SIGNAL” market. Software developer exploits this market opportunities offering software to cater this segment. WHO is to blame for this malaise? Who is to blame when non-charting practitioners poke fun of this “TA” jokers?

The objective of analyzing the chart with appropriate tools or indicators is not to trigger at multi-signals generated. The main objective is to understand if the last anxious buyer or seller has exited market. Take appropriate actions when the “last” anxious people has wave the flag. This is what we should appropriately do with analyzing charts.

In physics, we know a rising projectile will continue to rise despite the velocity dropping till a peak is reached. A slowing velocity does not mean the projectile has stop rising. It only means the projectile is scaling at a slower pace! When the peak is reached the projectile will drop due to gravity. This is similar to rising price movement.

How do we monitor the changes to velocity as price rises? How do we know the peak is not the FINAL peak? It is not about how the candlesticks or bars formed over a series of movements. IT is not about increasing or decreasing volume. It is about do we know what we are looking for in charts!

Warfare

2011-08-24T17:10:00.002+08:00

Your personal battle is won on a four fronts namely;

1) mental, 2) physical, 3) weapons and 4) enemy.

Mental means the confidence of going to battle.

Physical means you are healthy and financially prepared to engage a battle.

Weapons mean your skills and experience.

Enemy means your opponents or enemy within.

In the world of trading (investing), almost all the time it is the enemy within that betrays us. The enemy within appears as GREED and FEAR. Emotional Greed and Fear breed overly positive and overly negative confidence. When one lost the confidence to battle, it is better to not go into a battle. You have lost before it has started.

When you are over-confident, you will let your defense down and act recklessly. On the reverse when you have lost confidence, you withdraw into self-preservation mode unable to react when opportunity develops.

In my 20 years of “guerrilla warfare”, the biggest enemy is not your armor battalion on the opposite site. It is the little enemy creature in your head. From our educational training to news, we are taught and mentally trained to conclude “WHAT THE OUTCOME SHOULD BE”. The biggest agony is we are forced to face many situational outcome that didn’t turn out to be “should be” using our rational logic mindset.

I have no less experience many occasions year in and year out I have to come to grip with unique relationship between market news and actual market actions. Not only it is intellectually challenging but intriguing. As much as I try to rationalize and understand peculiar relationship, I know and resigned to the fact this is a futile effort.

While Newton sat under the apple tree and asked why apples fall compared to many who saw the apples fell, I realized that such peculiar behavior or outcome is NOTHING NEW. This relates back applying my experience studying and observing how consumers reacted, behaved and finally make decisions irrationally when I do product pricing working with MNC FMCG.

We can choose to ignore rational or irrational analysis but the truth is we are beaten with rational mindset. To join the crowd when we feel they are irrational is mentally extremely challenging. It is like agreeing to this mad drunkard. Are we mad? We are extremely comfortable operating the realm of rational logic condition. The truth is market and world do not evolve around rational logic condition ALL the time. It is in a flux oscillating between two dichotomous ends. IT IS NEVER STATIC when it involves EMOTION.

IF there is one thing I realize winning in the market is about betting with the stronger team no matter irrationally mad they seems. Don’t wait too long to leave the crowd because sooner or later this drunkard will be sober and turnaround. If we are slow, we will be mow down! Have and exit plan if you want to join the madness.

DID I SAY GOLD WAS GOING TO FALL while others are clapping for higher prices? How about KLSE Index?

Let market decide if my analysis is right or wrong. I bet with my own money and I try my very best to bet with the winning side.

Past behavior manifestation

2011-08-23T20:45:00.003+08:00

Look at current KLCI Chart Daily (Upper Left) and Weekly (Upper right). Look at some past behavior that matches the current movement. Let us see where market will lead us over the next few weeks.

GOLD - Set up for a FALL?

2011-08-21T21:26:00.005+08:00

Yes, it is true GOLD is talk of the town. Physics 101 - An object in motion when seen unstoppable at the strongest moment is also the WEAKEST moment (Kinetic Energy = Potential Energy : 1/2 (mv2) = mgh). All we need to do is to use certain indicators to tract velocity. I develop my own proprietary indicators to do just that!

The is the most logical and rational way to see things. But our rational mind will be shut out and join in to sing and worship GOLD champ mantra.

Currently, we are looking at a similar setup developing versus the past before a serious correction sets in. Gold correction early 2008 was delayed slightly before the set up came to past.

Gold rally has provide support to other commodities compared to equities correction.

What is GOLD rally comes to a halt and corrected severely like Silver? Will the rest of the commodities suffer worst fate?

IF the rest of the commodities do indeed crash, how can fundamental justify the free fall?

Let market show us the way and see if charts has predictive value if we use charts to look at a longer term instead of getting frenzy with intra-day volatility.

As I look into the crystal ball, I trust and believe DJIA will finds its base around first week of September. IF there is delay it will be mid September.

IF market does behave according to my expectation, I will liquidate all my Futures index shorts, accumulate stocks and warrants, not forgetting long some futures index.

May the best prices be yours. Happy surfing. Enjoy the actions.

Is the market seriously thinking about diving exercise?

2011-08-18T22:35:00.005+08:00

Am I ahead of the market? Most of the time I am early in detecting potential and possible changes to market. It is how I prepare for this expected possibility that help me wade through volatility.

Is it hard to understand market? I don't think so (IF you have set out what to look for). What are the possible and impossible things to do in the market after 20 years of actual research and trading?

1) IT IS POSSIBLE TO TIME THE MARKET.

2) IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PUT PRICE AND TIME accurately all the time. Sometime? YES. More likely to be lucky.

3) IT IS POSSIBLE TO FEEL AND TRAIL THE TREND.

4) PERFECTION requires PATIENCE, SACRIFICE and giving up a lot if not all the mental baggage and start fresh.

5) IT IS POSSIBLE TO BEAT THE MARKET AVERAGE CONSISTENTLY AND EASILY IF YOU KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING and DOING IT WHEN THE REWARD - RISK ratio is rewarding you favorably.

6) ALWAYS ENSURE YOUR ODDS are favorable before you strike. If you want to gamble, be smart and wise. Don't be wreckless.